Gaelic Athletic Association and the Irish Rugby Football Union: Competing Business Models Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Gaelic Athletic Association and the Irish Rugby Football Union: Competing Business Models case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Gaelic Athletic Association and the Irish Rugby Football Union: Competing Business Models case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Peter McNamara, Olga Ryazanova, Fionn Collins, David Aherne. The Gaelic Athletic Association and the Irish Rugby Football Union: Competing Business Models (referred as “Irish Rugby” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Gaelic Athletic Association and the Irish Rugby Football Union: Competing Business Models Case Study

The Gaelic Athletic Association and Irish Rugby Football Union are two sporting organizations that have innovated through their business models to grow their sports, create world-class sport facilities and improve their ability to win European competitions. Yet they reside in one of the smallest countries in Europe - Ireland. While the Gaelic Athletic Association is a volunteer organization whose amateur status (in which players and coaches are unpaid) imposes significant limitations on its revenue-generating abilities, the professional Irish Rugby Football Union has earned substantial income through the success of provincial and national Irish rugby teams. Both organizations compete for scarce financial, physical and human resources and are now faced with a rapidly changing environment following the deepest recession in the history of the Irish Republic and emigration of talent abroad. This case challenges students to analyze the business models of the Gaelic Athletic Association and Irish Rugby Football Union and explore how the models can be innovated to ensure survival of these cultural assets for the next generation. Peter McNamara, Olga Ryazanova, Fionn Collins, and David Aherne are affiliated with University College Dublin.

Case Authors : Peter McNamara, Olga Ryazanova, Fionn Collins, David Aherne

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Gaelic Athletic Association and the Irish Rugby Football Union: Competing Business Models Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026049)	-10026049	-	-
Year 1	3451181	-6574868	3451181	0.9434	3255831
Year 2	3977138	-2597730	7428319	0.89	3539639
Year 3	3939699	1341969	11368018	0.8396	3307847
Year 4	3224764	4566733	14592782	0.7921	2554315
TOTAL			14592782		12657632

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2631583

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Irish Rugby have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Irish Rugby shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Gaelic Athletic Association and the Irish Rugby Football Union: Competing Business Models

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Irish Rugby often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Irish Rugby needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026049)	-10026049	-	-
Year 1	3451181	-6574868	3451181	0.8696	3001027
Year 2	3977138	-2597730	7428319	0.7561	3007288
Year 3	3939699	1341969	11368018	0.6575	2590416
Year 4	3224764	4566733	14592782	0.5718	1843769
TOTAL					10442500

The Net NPV after 4 years is 416451

(10442500 - 10026049 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026049)	-10026049	-	-
Year 1	3451181	-6574868	3451181	0.8333	2875984
Year 2	3977138	-2597730	7428319	0.6944	2761901
Year 3	3939699	1341969	11368018	0.5787	2279918
Year 4	3224764	4566733	14592782	0.4823	1555152
TOTAL					9472956

The Net NPV after 4 years is -553093

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9472956 - 10026049 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Irish Rugby to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Irish Rugby has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Irish Rugby can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Irish Rugby, then the stock price of the Irish Rugby should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Irish Rugby should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Gaelic Athletic Association and the Irish Rugby Football Union: Competing Business Models

References & Further Readings

Peter McNamara, Olga Ryazanova, Fionn Collins, David Aherne (2018), "Gaelic Athletic Association and the Irish Rugby Football Union: Competing Business Models Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.