Case Study Description of Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives
One of the great challenges for organizations in the current economy is making strategy under the uncertainties posed by turbulent environments, intensified competition, emerging technologies, shifting customer tastes and regulatory change. Executives often know they must break with the status quo, but there are few signposts indicating the best way forward. Executives have long been exhorted to conduct analyses of internal and external environments and construct scenarios of the future. However, seeing strategy in this way has some serious weaknesses. It assumes that accuracy can be achieved through rigorous analysis and conscientious efforts to overcome individual biases in perception. It also assumes that the process will be relatively frictionless and primarily analytical. But research has found that most forecasting efforts fail to attain the desired precision. To study how managers make strategy in conditions of considerable uncertainty, the authors took an in-depth look at five technology strategy projects inside the Advanced Technology Strategy Group at a communications technology company that was experiencing a period of high industry turbulence. The authors observed managers'struggles to forecast the future and discovered that managers could not imagine new futures for the company without rethinking the past and reconsidering present concerns. A new future could not shape strategic choices unless it was connected in a narrative that showed how it relates to the past and the present. When managers settled on a particular narrative, they could make choices. Strategy making amid volatility thus involves constructing and reconstructing strategic narratives that reimagine the past and present in ways that allow the organization to explore multiple possible futures. In comparing strategy projects, the authors found that the more work managers do to create novel strategic narratives, the more likely they are to explore alternatives that break with the status quo. This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article.
Swot Analysis of "Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives" written by Sarah Kaplan, Wanda J. Orlikowski includes – strengths weakness that are internal strategic factors of the organization, and opportunities and threats that Narratives Assumes facing as an external strategic factors. Some of the topics covered in Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives case study are - Strategic Management Strategies, Strategy and Strategy & Execution.
Some of the macro environment factors that can be used to understand the Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives casestudy better are - – challanges to central banks by blockchain based private currencies, increasing commodity prices, banking and financial system is disrupted by Bitcoin and other crypto currencies, central banks are concerned over increasing inflation, cloud computing is disrupting traditional business models, increasing inequality as vast percentage of new income is going to the top 1%, competitive advantages are harder to sustain because of technology dispersion,
customer relationship management is fast transforming because of increasing concerns over data privacy, increasing energy prices, etc
Introduction to SWOT Analysis of Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives
SWOT stands for an organization’s Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats . At Oak Spring University , we believe that protagonist in Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives case study can use SWOT analysis as a strategic management tool to assess the current internal strengths and weaknesses of the Narratives Assumes, and to figure out the opportunities and threats in the macro environment – technological, environmental, political, economic, social, demographic, etc in which Narratives Assumes operates in.
According to Harvard Business Review, 75% of the managers use SWOT analysis for various purposes such as – evaluating current scenario, strategic planning, new venture feasibility, personal growth goals, new market entry, Go To market strategies, portfolio management and strategic trade-off assessment, organizational restructuring, etc.
SWOT Objectives / Importance of SWOT Analysis and SWOT Matrix
SWOT analysis of Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives can be done for the following purposes –
1. Strategic planning using facts provided in Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives case study
2. Improving business portfolio management of Narratives Assumes
3. Assessing feasibility of the new initiative in Strategy & Execution field.
4. Making a Strategy & Execution topic specific business decision
5. Set goals for the organization
6. Organizational restructuring of Narratives Assumes
Strengths Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives | Internal Strategic Factors
What are Strengths in SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix / Weighted SWOT Analysis
The strengths of Narratives Assumes in Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives Harvard Business Review case study are -
Ability to recruit top talent
– Narratives Assumes is one of the leading recruiters in the industry. Managers in the Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives are in a position to attract the best talent available. The firm has a robust talent identification program that helps in identifying the brightest.
Training and development
– Narratives Assumes has one of the best training and development program in the industry. The effectiveness of the training programs can be measured in Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives Harvard Business Review case study by analyzing – employees retention, in-house promotion, loyalty, new venture initiation, lack of conflict, and high level of both employees and customer engagement.
Highly skilled collaborators
– Narratives Assumes has highly efficient outsourcing and offshoring strategy. It has resulted in greater operational flexibility and bringing down the costs in highly price sensitive segment. Secondly the value chain collaborators of the firm in Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives HBR case study have helped the firm to develop new products and bring them quickly to the marketplace.
Ability to lead change in Strategy & Execution field
– Narratives Assumes is one of the leading players in its industry. Over the years it has not only transformed the business landscape in its segment but also across the whole industry. The ability to lead change has enabled Narratives Assumes in – penetrating new markets, reaching out to new customers, and providing different value propositions to different customers in the international markets.
Strong track record of project management
– Narratives Assumes is known for sticking to its project targets. This enables the firm to manage – time, project costs, and have sustainable margins on the projects.
Digital Transformation in Strategy & Execution segment
- digital transformation varies from industry to industry. For Narratives Assumes digital transformation journey comprises differing goals based on market maturity, customer technology acceptance, and organizational culture. Narratives Assumes has successfully integrated the four key components of digital transformation – digital integration in processes, digital integration in marketing and customer relationship management, digital integration into the value chain, and using technology to explore new products and market opportunities.
Diverse revenue streams
– Narratives Assumes is present in almost all the verticals within the industry. This has provided firm in Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives case study a diverse revenue stream that has helped it to survive disruptions such as global pandemic in Covid-19, financial disruption of 2008, and supply chain disruption of 2021.
High brand equity
– Narratives Assumes has strong brand awareness and brand recognition among both - the exiting customers and potential new customers. Strong brand equity has enabled Narratives Assumes to keep acquiring new customers and building profitable relationship with both the new and loyal customers.
Sustainable margins compare to other players in Strategy & Execution industry
– Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives firm has clearly differentiated products in the market place. This has enabled Narratives Assumes to fetch slight price premium compare to the competitors in the Strategy & Execution industry. The sustainable margins have also helped Narratives Assumes to invest into research and development (R&D) and innovation.
Low bargaining power of suppliers
– Suppliers of Narratives Assumes in the sector have low bargaining power. Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives has further diversified its suppliers portfolio by building a robust supply chain across various countries. This helps Narratives Assumes to manage not only supply disruptions but also source products at highly competitive prices.
Learning organization
- Narratives Assumes is a learning organization. It has inculcated three key characters of learning organization in its processes and operations – exploration, creativity, and expansiveness. The work place at Narratives Assumes is open place that encourages instructiveness, ideation, open minded discussions, and creativity. Employees and leaders in Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives Harvard Business Review case study emphasize – knowledge, initiative, and innovation.
Successful track record of launching new products
– Narratives Assumes has launched numerous new products in last few years, keeping in mind evolving customer preferences and competitive pressures. Narratives Assumes has effective processes in place that helps in exploring new product needs, doing quick pilot testing, and then launching the products quickly using its extensive distribution network.
Weaknesses Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives | Internal Strategic Factors
What are Weaknesses in SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix / Weighted SWOT Analysis
The weaknesses of Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives are -
Workers concerns about automation
– As automation is fast increasing in the segment, Narratives Assumes needs to come up with a strategy to reduce the workers concern regarding automation. Without a clear strategy, it could lead to disruption and uncertainty within the organization.
High operating costs
– Compare to the competitors, firm in the HBR case study Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives has high operating costs in the. This can be harder to sustain given the new emerging competition from nimble players who are using technology to attract Narratives Assumes 's lucrative customers.
Employees’ incomplete understanding of strategy
– From the instances in the HBR case study Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives, it seems that the employees of Narratives Assumes don’t have comprehensive understanding of the firm’s strategy. This is reflected in number of promotional campaigns over the last few years that had mixed messaging and competing priorities. Some of the strategic activities and services promoted in the promotional campaigns were not consistent with the organization’s strategy.
Products dominated business model
– Even though Narratives Assumes has some of the most successful products in the industry, this business model has made each new product launch extremely critical for continuous financial growth of the organization. firm in the HBR case study - Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives should strive to include more intangible value offerings along with its core products and services.
Need for greater diversity
– Narratives Assumes has taken concrete steps on diversity, equity, and inclusion. But the efforts so far has resulted in limited success. It needs to expand the recruitment and selection process to hire more people from the minorities and underprivileged background.
Skills based hiring
– The stress on hiring functional specialists at Narratives Assumes has created an environment where the organization is dominated by functional specialists rather than management generalist. This has resulted into product oriented approach rather than marketing oriented approach or consumers oriented approach.
High dependence on star products
– The top 2 products and services of the firm as mentioned in the Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives HBR case study still accounts for major business revenue. This dependence on star products in has resulted into insufficient focus on developing new products, even though Narratives Assumes has relatively successful track record of launching new products.
Lack of clear differentiation of Narratives Assumes products
– To increase the profitability and margins on the products, Narratives Assumes needs to provide more differentiated products than what it is currently offering in the marketplace.
Capital Spending Reduction
– Even during the low interest decade, Narratives Assumes has not been able to do capital spending to the tune of the competition. This has resulted into fewer innovations and company facing stiff competition from both existing competitors and new entrants who are disrupting the industry using digital technology.
Slow decision making process
– As mentioned earlier in the report, Narratives Assumes has a very deliberative decision making approach. This approach has resulted in prudent decisions, but it has also resulted in missing opportunities in the industry over the last five years. Narratives Assumes even though has strong showing on digital transformation primary two stages, it has struggled to capitalize the power of digital transformation in marketing efforts and new venture efforts.
High dependence on existing supply chain
– The disruption in the global supply chains because of the Covid-19 pandemic and blockage of the Suez Canal illustrated the fragile nature of Narratives Assumes supply chain. Even after few cautionary changes mentioned in the HBR case study - Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives, it is still heavily dependent upon the existing supply chain. The existing supply chain though brings in cost efficiencies but it has left Narratives Assumes vulnerable to further global disruptions in South East Asia.
Opportunities Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives | External Strategic Factors
What are Opportunities in the SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix / Weighted SWOT Analysis
The opportunities highlighted in the Harvard Business Review case study Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives are -
Learning at scale
– Online learning technologies has now opened space for Narratives Assumes to conduct training and development for its employees across the world. This will result in not only reducing the cost of training but also help employees in different part of the world to integrate with the headquarter work culture, ethos, and standards.
Loyalty marketing
– Narratives Assumes has focused on building a highly responsive customer relationship management platform. This platform is built on in-house data and driven by analytics and artificial intelligence. The customer analytics can help the organization to fine tune its loyalty marketing efforts, increase the wallet share of the organization, reduce wastage on mainstream advertising spending, build better pricing strategies using personalization, etc.
Low interest rates
– Even though inflation is raising its head in most developed economies, Narratives Assumes can still utilize the low interest rates to borrow money for capital investment. Secondly it can also use the increase of government spending in infrastructure projects to get new business.
Using analytics as competitive advantage
– Narratives Assumes has spent a significant amount of money and effort to integrate analytics and machine learning into its operations in the sector. This continuous investment in analytics has enabled, as illustrated in the Harvard case study Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives - to build a competitive advantage using analytics. The analytics driven competitive advantage can help Narratives Assumes to build faster Go To Market strategies, better consumer insights, developing relevant product features, and building a highly efficient supply chain.
Redefining models of collaboration and team work
– As explained in the weaknesses section, Narratives Assumes is facing challenges because of the dominance of functional experts in the organization. Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives case study suggests that firm can utilize new technology to build more coordinated teams and streamline operations and communications using tools such as CAD, Zoom, etc.
Reconfiguring business model
– The expansion of digital payment system, the bringing down of international transactions costs using Bitcoin and other blockchain based currencies, etc can help Narratives Assumes to reconfigure its entire business model. For example it can used blockchain based technologies to reduce piracy of its products in the big markets such as China. Secondly it can use the popularity of e-commerce in various developing markets to build a Direct to Customer business model rather than the current Channel Heavy distribution network.
Leveraging digital technologies
– Narratives Assumes can leverage digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning to automate the production process, customer analytics to get better insights into consumer behavior, realtime digital dashboards to get better sales tracking, logistics and transportation, product tracking, etc.
Harnessing reconfiguration of the global supply chains
– As the trade war between US and China heats up in the coming years, Narratives Assumes can build a diversified supply chain model across various countries in - South East Asia, India, and other parts of the world. This reconfiguration of global supply chain can help, as suggested in case study, Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives, to buy more products closer to the markets, and it can leverage its size and influence to get better deal from the local markets.
Lowering marketing communication costs
– 5G expansion will open new opportunities for Narratives Assumes in the field of marketing communication. It will bring down the cost of doing business, provide technology platform to build new products in the Strategy & Execution segment, and it will provide faster access to the consumers.
Use of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies for transactions
– The popularity of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies as asset class and medium of transaction has opened new opportunities for Narratives Assumes in the consumer business. Now Narratives Assumes can target international markets with far fewer capital restrictions requirements than the existing system.
Identify volunteer opportunities
– Covid-19 has impacted working population in two ways – it has led to people soul searching about their professional choices, resulting in mass resignation. Secondly it has encouraged people to do things that they are passionate about. This has opened opportunities for businesses to build volunteer oriented socially driven projects. Narratives Assumes can explore opportunities that can attract volunteers and are consistent with its mission and vision.
Changes in consumer behavior post Covid-19
– Consumer behavior has changed in the Strategy & Execution industry because of Covid-19 restrictions. Some of this behavior will stay once things get back to normal. Narratives Assumes can take advantage of these changes in consumer behavior to build a far more efficient business model. For example consumer regular ordering of products can reduce both last mile delivery costs and market penetration costs. Narratives Assumes can further use this consumer data to build better customer loyalty, provide better products and service collection, and improve the value proposition in inflationary times.
Better consumer reach
– The expansion of the 5G network will help Narratives Assumes to increase its market reach. Narratives Assumes will be able to reach out to new customers. Secondly 5G will also provide technology framework to build new tools and products that can help more immersive consumer experience and faster consumer journey.
Threats Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives External Strategic Factors
What are Threats in the SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix / Weighted SWOT Analysis
The threats mentioned in the HBR case study Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives are -
Trade war between China and United States
– The trade war between two of the biggest economies can hugely impact the opportunities for Narratives Assumes in the Strategy & Execution industry. The Strategy & Execution industry is already at various protected from local competition in China, with the rise of trade war the protection levels may go up. This presents a clear threat of current business model in Chinese market.
Regulatory challenges
– Narratives Assumes needs to prepare for regulatory challenges as consumer protection groups and other pressure groups are vigorously advocating for more regulations on big business - to reduce inequality, to create a level playing field, to product data privacy and consumer privacy, to reduce the influence of big money on democratic institutions, etc. This can lead to significant changes in the Strategy & Execution industry regulations.
Barriers of entry lowering
– As technology is more democratized, the barriers to entry in the industry are lowering. It can presents Narratives Assumes with greater competitive threats in the near to medium future. Secondly it will also put downward pressure on pricing throughout the sector.
Capital market disruption
– During the Covid-19, Dow Jones has touched record high. The valuations of a number of companies are way beyond their existing business model potential. This can lead to capital market correction which can put a number of suppliers, collaborators, value chain partners in great financial difficulty. It will directly impact the business of Narratives Assumes.
Consumer confidence and its impact on Narratives Assumes demand
– There is a high probability of declining consumer confidence, given – high inflammation rate, rise of gig economy, lower job stability, increasing cost of living, higher interest rates, and aging demography. All the factors contribute to people saving higher rate of their income, resulting in lower consumer demand in the industry and other sectors.
Increasing international competition and downward pressure on margins
– Apart from technology driven competitive advantage dilution, Narratives Assumes can face downward pressure on margins from increasing competition from international players. The international players have stable revenue in their home market and can use those resources to penetrate prominent markets illustrated in HBR case study Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives .
Stagnating economy with rate increase
– Narratives Assumes can face lack of demand in the market place because of Fed actions to reduce inflation. This can lead to sluggish growth in the economy, lower demands, lower investments, higher borrowing costs, and consolidation in the field.
New competition
– After the dotcom bust of 2001, financial crisis of 2008-09, the business formation in US economy had declined. But in 2020 alone, there are more than 1.5 million new business applications in United States. This can lead to greater competition for Narratives Assumes in the Strategy & Execution sector and impact the bottomline of the organization.
Backlash against dominant players
– US Congress and other legislative arms of the government are getting tough on big business especially technology companies. The digital arm of Narratives Assumes business can come under increasing regulations regarding data privacy, data security, etc.
Aging population
– As the populations of most advanced economies are aging, it will lead to high social security costs, higher savings among population, and lower demand for goods and services in the economy. The household savings in US, France, UK, Germany, and Japan are growing faster than predicted because of uncertainty caused by pandemic.
Technology acceleration in Forth Industrial Revolution
– Narratives Assumes has witnessed rapid integration of technology during Covid-19 in the Strategy & Execution industry. As one of the leading players in the industry, Narratives Assumes needs to keep up with the evolution of technology in the Strategy & Execution sector. According to Mckinsey study top managers believe that the adoption of technology in operations, communications is 20-25 times faster than what they planned in the beginning of 2019.
High level of anxiety and lack of motivation
– the Great Resignation in United States is the sign of broader dissatisfaction among the workforce in United States. Narratives Assumes needs to understand the core reasons impacting the Strategy & Execution industry. This will help it in building a better workplace.
Easy access to finance
– Easy access to finance in Strategy & Execution field will also reduce the barriers to entry in the industry, thus putting downward pressure on the prices because of increasing competition. Narratives Assumes can utilize it by borrowing at lower rates and invest it into research and development, capital expenditure to fortify its core competitive advantage.
Weighted SWOT Analysis of Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives Template, Example
Not all factors mentioned under the Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats quadrants in the SWOT Analysis are equal. Managers in the HBR case study Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives needs to zero down on the relative importance of each factor mentioned in the Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats quadrants.
We can provide the relative importance to each factor by assigning relative weights. Weighted SWOT analysis process is a three stage process –
First stage for doing weighted SWOT analysis of the case study Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives is to rank the strengths and weaknesses of the organization. This will help you to assess the most important strengths and weaknesses of the firm and which one of the strengths and weaknesses mentioned in the initial lists are marginal and can be left out.
Second stage for conducting weighted SWOT analysis of the Harvard case study Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives is to give probabilities to the external strategic factors thus better understanding the opportunities and threats arising out of macro environment changes and developments.
Third stage of constructing weighted SWOT analysis of Beyond Forecasting: Creating New Strategic Narratives is to provide strategic recommendations includes – joining likelihood of external strategic factors such as opportunities and threats to the internal strategic factors – strengths and weaknesses. You should start with external factors as they will provide the direction of the overall industry. Secondly by joining probabilities with internal strategic factors can help the company not only strategic fit but also the most probably strategic trade-off that Narratives Assumes needs to make to build a sustainable competitive advantage.
