Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix / Weighted SWOT Analysis
Strategy & Execution
Strategy / MBA Resources
Case Study SWOT Analysis Solution
Case Study Description of Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning
The business environment for many firms is changing rapidly and is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the disruption caused by new digital technologies, deregulation, new business models, and the threat of new competitive entrants. This dynamic competitive environment increases the level of uncertainty for senior executives and strategic planning teams who bear responsibility for the strategic development of the firm, particularly in terms of the future direction, scope, and the strategy required to deliver on corporate objectives. This in turn, places increased scrutiny on the strategic planning tools that are used to undertake a rational and comprehensive analysis of the competitive dynamics that inform strategy formulation. This article presents empirical findings and reflections on a scenario-planning project that sought to develop a long-term corporate level strategy. While scenario planning is an established constituent of the strategist's toolbox, the increasing level of dynamism and uncertainty in many markets has meant that it has seen a resurgence. This article presents empirical findings on how the scenario-planning tool was selected and applied before reflecting on the individual and organizational outcomes of using scenario planning to develop an organizational strategy in uncertain market conditions.
Swot Analysis of "Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning" written by John J. Oliver, Emma Parrett includes – strengths weakness that are internal strategic factors of the organization, and opportunities and threats that Scenario Planning facing as an external strategic factors. Some of the topics covered in Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning case study are - Strategic Management Strategies, Managing uncertainty, Strategic planning and Strategy & Execution.
Some of the macro environment factors that can be used to understand the Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning casestudy better are - – increasing transportation and logistics costs, cloud computing is disrupting traditional business models, increasing energy prices, increasing household debt because of falling income levels, increasing commodity prices, challanges to central banks by blockchain based private currencies, talent flight as more people leaving formal jobs,
increasing government debt because of Covid-19 spendings, wage bills are increasing, etc
Introduction to SWOT Analysis of Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning
SWOT stands for an organization’s Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats . At Oak Spring University , we believe that protagonist in Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning case study can use SWOT analysis as a strategic management tool to assess the current internal strengths and weaknesses of the Scenario Planning, and to figure out the opportunities and threats in the macro environment – technological, environmental, political, economic, social, demographic, etc in which Scenario Planning operates in.
According to Harvard Business Review, 75% of the managers use SWOT analysis for various purposes such as – evaluating current scenario, strategic planning, new venture feasibility, personal growth goals, new market entry, Go To market strategies, portfolio management and strategic trade-off assessment, organizational restructuring, etc.
SWOT Objectives / Importance of SWOT Analysis and SWOT Matrix
SWOT analysis of Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning can be done for the following purposes –
1. Strategic planning using facts provided in Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning case study
2. Improving business portfolio management of Scenario Planning
3. Assessing feasibility of the new initiative in Strategy & Execution field.
4. Making a Strategy & Execution topic specific business decision
5. Set goals for the organization
6. Organizational restructuring of Scenario Planning
Strengths Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning | Internal Strategic Factors
What are Strengths in SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix / Weighted SWOT Analysis
The strengths of Scenario Planning in Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning Harvard Business Review case study are -
Strong track record of project management
– Scenario Planning is known for sticking to its project targets. This enables the firm to manage – time, project costs, and have sustainable margins on the projects.
Innovation driven organization
– Scenario Planning is one of the most innovative firm in sector. Manager in Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning Harvard Business Review case study can use Clayton Christensen Disruptive Innovation strategies to further increase the scale of innovtions in the organization.
Ability to recruit top talent
– Scenario Planning is one of the leading recruiters in the industry. Managers in the Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning are in a position to attract the best talent available. The firm has a robust talent identification program that helps in identifying the brightest.
Effective Research and Development (R&D)
– Scenario Planning has innovation driven culture where significant part of the revenues are spent on the research and development activities. This has resulted in, as mentioned in case study Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning - staying ahead in the industry in terms of – new product launches, superior customer experience, highly competitive pricing strategies, and great returns to the shareholders.
Diverse revenue streams
– Scenario Planning is present in almost all the verticals within the industry. This has provided firm in Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning case study a diverse revenue stream that has helped it to survive disruptions such as global pandemic in Covid-19, financial disruption of 2008, and supply chain disruption of 2021.
Cross disciplinary teams
– Horizontal connected teams at the Scenario Planning are driving operational speed, building greater agility, and keeping the organization nimble to compete with new competitors. It helps are organization to ideate new ideas, and execute them swiftly in the marketplace.
Organizational Resilience of Scenario Planning
– The covid-19 pandemic has put organizational resilience at the centre of everthing that Scenario Planning does. Organizational resilience comprises - Financial Resilience, Operational Resilience, Technological Resilience, Organizational Resilience, Business Model Resilience, and Reputation Resilience.
Ability to lead change in Strategy & Execution field
– Scenario Planning is one of the leading players in its industry. Over the years it has not only transformed the business landscape in its segment but also across the whole industry. The ability to lead change has enabled Scenario Planning in – penetrating new markets, reaching out to new customers, and providing different value propositions to different customers in the international markets.
Digital Transformation in Strategy & Execution segment
- digital transformation varies from industry to industry. For Scenario Planning digital transformation journey comprises differing goals based on market maturity, customer technology acceptance, and organizational culture. Scenario Planning has successfully integrated the four key components of digital transformation – digital integration in processes, digital integration in marketing and customer relationship management, digital integration into the value chain, and using technology to explore new products and market opportunities.
Operational resilience
– The operational resilience strategy in the Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning Harvard Business Review case study comprises – understanding the underlying the factors in the industry, building diversified operations across different geographies so that disruption in one part of the world doesn’t impact the overall performance of the firm, and integrating the various business operations and processes through its digital transformation drive.
Superior customer experience
– The customer experience strategy of Scenario Planning in the segment is based on four key concepts – personalization, simplification of complex needs, prompt response, and continuous engagement.
Analytics focus
– Scenario Planning is putting a lot of focus on utilizing the power of analytics in business decision making. This has put it among the leading players in the industry. The technology infrastructure suggested by John J. Oliver, Emma Parrett can also help it to harness the power of analytics for – marketing optimization, demand forecasting, customer relationship management, inventory management, information sharing across the value chain etc.
Weaknesses Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning | Internal Strategic Factors
What are Weaknesses in SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix / Weighted SWOT Analysis
The weaknesses of Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning are -
High dependence on star products
– The top 2 products and services of the firm as mentioned in the Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning HBR case study still accounts for major business revenue. This dependence on star products in has resulted into insufficient focus on developing new products, even though Scenario Planning has relatively successful track record of launching new products.
Workers concerns about automation
– As automation is fast increasing in the segment, Scenario Planning needs to come up with a strategy to reduce the workers concern regarding automation. Without a clear strategy, it could lead to disruption and uncertainty within the organization.
Slow to harness new channels of communication
– Even though competitors are using new communication channels such as Instagram, Tiktok, and Snap, Scenario Planning is slow explore the new channels of communication. These new channels of communication mentioned in marketing section of case study Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning can help to provide better information regarding products and services. It can also build an online community to further reach out to potential customers.
Lack of clear differentiation of Scenario Planning products
– To increase the profitability and margins on the products, Scenario Planning needs to provide more differentiated products than what it is currently offering in the marketplace.
High bargaining power of channel partners
– Because of the regulatory requirements, John J. Oliver, Emma Parrett suggests that, Scenario Planning is facing high bargaining power of the channel partners. So far it has not able to streamline the operations to reduce the bargaining power of the value chain partners in the industry.
Skills based hiring
– The stress on hiring functional specialists at Scenario Planning has created an environment where the organization is dominated by functional specialists rather than management generalist. This has resulted into product oriented approach rather than marketing oriented approach or consumers oriented approach.
Interest costs
– Compare to the competition, Scenario Planning has borrowed money from the capital market at higher rates. It needs to restructure the interest payment and costs so that it can compete better and improve profitability.
High cash cycle compare to competitors
Scenario Planning has a high cash cycle compare to other players in the industry. It needs to shorten the cash cycle by 12% to be more competitive in the marketplace, reduce inventory costs, and be more profitable.
Slow decision making process
– As mentioned earlier in the report, Scenario Planning has a very deliberative decision making approach. This approach has resulted in prudent decisions, but it has also resulted in missing opportunities in the industry over the last five years. Scenario Planning even though has strong showing on digital transformation primary two stages, it has struggled to capitalize the power of digital transformation in marketing efforts and new venture efforts.
High operating costs
– Compare to the competitors, firm in the HBR case study Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning has high operating costs in the. This can be harder to sustain given the new emerging competition from nimble players who are using technology to attract Scenario Planning 's lucrative customers.
Increasing silos among functional specialists
– The organizational structure of Scenario Planning is dominated by functional specialists. It is not different from other players in the Strategy & Execution segment. Scenario Planning needs to de-silo the office environment to harness the true potential of its workforce. Secondly the de-silo will also help Scenario Planning to focus more on services rather than just following the product oriented approach.
Opportunities Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning | External Strategic Factors
What are Opportunities in the SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix / Weighted SWOT Analysis
The opportunities highlighted in the Harvard Business Review case study Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning are -
Lowering marketing communication costs
– 5G expansion will open new opportunities for Scenario Planning in the field of marketing communication. It will bring down the cost of doing business, provide technology platform to build new products in the Strategy & Execution segment, and it will provide faster access to the consumers.
Remote work and new talent hiring opportunities
– The widespread usage of remote working technologies during Covid-19 has opened opportunities for Scenario Planning to expand its talent hiring zone. According to McKinsey Global Institute, 20% of the high end workforce in fields such as finance, information technology, can continously work from remote local post Covid-19. This presents a really great opportunity for Scenario Planning to hire the very best people irrespective of their geographical location.
Using analytics as competitive advantage
– Scenario Planning has spent a significant amount of money and effort to integrate analytics and machine learning into its operations in the sector. This continuous investment in analytics has enabled, as illustrated in the Harvard case study Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning - to build a competitive advantage using analytics. The analytics driven competitive advantage can help Scenario Planning to build faster Go To Market strategies, better consumer insights, developing relevant product features, and building a highly efficient supply chain.
Changes in consumer behavior post Covid-19
– Consumer behavior has changed in the Strategy & Execution industry because of Covid-19 restrictions. Some of this behavior will stay once things get back to normal. Scenario Planning can take advantage of these changes in consumer behavior to build a far more efficient business model. For example consumer regular ordering of products can reduce both last mile delivery costs and market penetration costs. Scenario Planning can further use this consumer data to build better customer loyalty, provide better products and service collection, and improve the value proposition in inflationary times.
Identify volunteer opportunities
– Covid-19 has impacted working population in two ways – it has led to people soul searching about their professional choices, resulting in mass resignation. Secondly it has encouraged people to do things that they are passionate about. This has opened opportunities for businesses to build volunteer oriented socially driven projects. Scenario Planning can explore opportunities that can attract volunteers and are consistent with its mission and vision.
Harnessing reconfiguration of the global supply chains
– As the trade war between US and China heats up in the coming years, Scenario Planning can build a diversified supply chain model across various countries in - South East Asia, India, and other parts of the world. This reconfiguration of global supply chain can help, as suggested in case study, Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning, to buy more products closer to the markets, and it can leverage its size and influence to get better deal from the local markets.
Manufacturing automation
– Scenario Planning can use the latest technology developments to improve its manufacturing and designing process in Strategy & Execution segment. It can use CAD and 3D printing to build a quick prototype and pilot testing products. It can leverage automation using machine learning and artificial intelligence to do faster production at lowers costs, and it can leverage the growth in satellite and tracking technologies to improve inventory management, transportation, and shipping.
Creating value in data economy
– The success of analytics program of Scenario Planning has opened avenues for new revenue streams for the organization in the industry. This can help Scenario Planning to build a more holistic ecosystem as suggested in the Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning case study. Scenario Planning can build new products and services such as - data insight services, data privacy related products, data based consulting services, etc.
Reconfiguring business model
– The expansion of digital payment system, the bringing down of international transactions costs using Bitcoin and other blockchain based currencies, etc can help Scenario Planning to reconfigure its entire business model. For example it can used blockchain based technologies to reduce piracy of its products in the big markets such as China. Secondly it can use the popularity of e-commerce in various developing markets to build a Direct to Customer business model rather than the current Channel Heavy distribution network.
Better consumer reach
– The expansion of the 5G network will help Scenario Planning to increase its market reach. Scenario Planning will be able to reach out to new customers. Secondly 5G will also provide technology framework to build new tools and products that can help more immersive consumer experience and faster consumer journey.
Redefining models of collaboration and team work
– As explained in the weaknesses section, Scenario Planning is facing challenges because of the dominance of functional experts in the organization. Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning case study suggests that firm can utilize new technology to build more coordinated teams and streamline operations and communications using tools such as CAD, Zoom, etc.
Leveraging digital technologies
– Scenario Planning can leverage digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning to automate the production process, customer analytics to get better insights into consumer behavior, realtime digital dashboards to get better sales tracking, logistics and transportation, product tracking, etc.
Building a culture of innovation
– managers at Scenario Planning can make experimentation a productive activity and build a culture of innovation using approaches such as – mining transaction data, A/B testing of websites and selling platforms, engaging potential customers over various needs, and building on small ideas in the Strategy & Execution segment.
Threats Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning External Strategic Factors
What are Threats in the SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix / Weighted SWOT Analysis
The threats mentioned in the HBR case study Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning are -
Capital market disruption
– During the Covid-19, Dow Jones has touched record high. The valuations of a number of companies are way beyond their existing business model potential. This can lead to capital market correction which can put a number of suppliers, collaborators, value chain partners in great financial difficulty. It will directly impact the business of Scenario Planning.
Easy access to finance
– Easy access to finance in Strategy & Execution field will also reduce the barriers to entry in the industry, thus putting downward pressure on the prices because of increasing competition. Scenario Planning can utilize it by borrowing at lower rates and invest it into research and development, capital expenditure to fortify its core competitive advantage.
Technology acceleration in Forth Industrial Revolution
– Scenario Planning has witnessed rapid integration of technology during Covid-19 in the Strategy & Execution industry. As one of the leading players in the industry, Scenario Planning needs to keep up with the evolution of technology in the Strategy & Execution sector. According to Mckinsey study top managers believe that the adoption of technology in operations, communications is 20-25 times faster than what they planned in the beginning of 2019.
Barriers of entry lowering
– As technology is more democratized, the barriers to entry in the industry are lowering. It can presents Scenario Planning with greater competitive threats in the near to medium future. Secondly it will also put downward pressure on pricing throughout the sector.
Trade war between China and United States
– The trade war between two of the biggest economies can hugely impact the opportunities for Scenario Planning in the Strategy & Execution industry. The Strategy & Execution industry is already at various protected from local competition in China, with the rise of trade war the protection levels may go up. This presents a clear threat of current business model in Chinese market.
Backlash against dominant players
– US Congress and other legislative arms of the government are getting tough on big business especially technology companies. The digital arm of Scenario Planning business can come under increasing regulations regarding data privacy, data security, etc.
Consumer confidence and its impact on Scenario Planning demand
– There is a high probability of declining consumer confidence, given – high inflammation rate, rise of gig economy, lower job stability, increasing cost of living, higher interest rates, and aging demography. All the factors contribute to people saving higher rate of their income, resulting in lower consumer demand in the industry and other sectors.
New competition
– After the dotcom bust of 2001, financial crisis of 2008-09, the business formation in US economy had declined. But in 2020 alone, there are more than 1.5 million new business applications in United States. This can lead to greater competition for Scenario Planning in the Strategy & Execution sector and impact the bottomline of the organization.
High dependence on third party suppliers
– Scenario Planning high dependence on third party suppliers can disrupt its processes and delivery mechanism. For example -the current troubles of car makers because of chip shortage is because the chip companies started producing chips for electronic companies rather than car manufacturers.
Technology disruption because of hacks, piracy etc
– The colonial pipeline illustrated, how vulnerable modern organization are to international hackers, miscreants, and disruptors. The cyber security interruption, data leaks, etc can seriously jeopardize the future growth of the organization.
Increasing wage structure of Scenario Planning
– Post Covid-19 there is a sharp increase in the wages especially in the jobs that require interaction with people. The increasing wages can put downward pressure on the margins of Scenario Planning.
Increasing international competition and downward pressure on margins
– Apart from technology driven competitive advantage dilution, Scenario Planning can face downward pressure on margins from increasing competition from international players. The international players have stable revenue in their home market and can use those resources to penetrate prominent markets illustrated in HBR case study Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning .
Environmental challenges
– Scenario Planning needs to have a robust strategy against the disruptions arising from climate change and energy requirements. EU has identified it as key priority area and spending 30% of its 880 billion Euros European post Covid-19 recovery funds on green technology. Scenario Planning can take advantage of this fund but it will also bring new competitors in the Strategy & Execution industry.
Weighted SWOT Analysis of Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning Template, Example
Not all factors mentioned under the Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats quadrants in the SWOT Analysis are equal. Managers in the HBR case study Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning needs to zero down on the relative importance of each factor mentioned in the Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats quadrants.
We can provide the relative importance to each factor by assigning relative weights. Weighted SWOT analysis process is a three stage process –
First stage for doing weighted SWOT analysis of the case study Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning is to rank the strengths and weaknesses of the organization. This will help you to assess the most important strengths and weaknesses of the firm and which one of the strengths and weaknesses mentioned in the initial lists are marginal and can be left out.
Second stage for conducting weighted SWOT analysis of the Harvard case study Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning is to give probabilities to the external strategic factors thus better understanding the opportunities and threats arising out of macro environment changes and developments.
Third stage of constructing weighted SWOT analysis of Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning is to provide strategic recommendations includes – joining likelihood of external strategic factors such as opportunities and threats to the internal strategic factors – strengths and weaknesses. You should start with external factors as they will provide the direction of the overall industry. Secondly by joining probabilities with internal strategic factors can help the company not only strategic fit but also the most probably strategic trade-off that Scenario Planning needs to make to build a sustainable competitive advantage.
