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Invest Early: Early Childhood Development in a Rural Community Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Invest Early: Early Childhood Development in a Rural Community case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Invest Early: Early Childhood Development in a Rural Community case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Stacey Childress, Geoff Marietta. The Invest Early: Early Childhood Development in a Rural Community (referred as “Invest Childhood” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Collaboration, Costs, Economic development, Generational issues, Joint ventures, Personnel policies.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Invest Early: Early Childhood Development in a Rural Community Case Study


Invest Early was an early childhood development partnership in rural northern Minnesota between 14 different organizations, which worked together through an advisory board, governing board, and leadership team in order to deliver coordinated early childhood services to young children living in poverty and just above poverty. Initial results showed that Invest Early children were better prepared for kindergarten than their low-income counterparts and the proficiency gap between Invest Early and high-income children had decreased significantly. Integrating and sustaining such a complicated network of individuals and organizations were not easy; it had taken over 10 years and thousands of hours of meetings. Issues such as the continued availability of funding and leadership turnover still threatened the effectiveness of the collaboration and the economic recession would almost certainly impact future leadership team decisions. Furthermore, the longstanding Head Start Education Manager, Dolores Bretti, was set to retire. Future challenges, such as declining budgets and Bretti's retirement, would require many more hours of meetings and collaborative solutions. Invest Early Director Jan Reindl felt that she and the Leadership Team members were ready for anything, but also wondered how new personalities and a different operating environment would influence Invest Early. What would need to change? What should remain the same? How could Invest Early and the Leadership Team be prepared for it all?


Case Authors : Stacey Childress, Geoff Marietta

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Collaboration, Costs, Economic development, Generational issues, Joint ventures, Personnel policies




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Invest Early: Early Childhood Development in a Rural Community Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10009233) -10009233 - -
Year 1 3447943 -6561290 3447943 0.9434 3252776
Year 2 3960527 -2600763 7408470 0.89 3524855
Year 3 3943792 1343029 11352262 0.8396 3311284
Year 4 3235611 4578640 14587873 0.7921 2562907
TOTAL 14587873 12651822


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2642589

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Invest Childhood have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Invest Childhood shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Invest Early: Early Childhood Development in a Rural Community

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Invest Childhood often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Invest Childhood needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10009233) -10009233 - -
Year 1 3447943 -6561290 3447943 0.8696 2998211
Year 2 3960527 -2600763 7408470 0.7561 2994727
Year 3 3943792 1343029 11352262 0.6575 2593107
Year 4 3235611 4578640 14587873 0.5718 1849971
TOTAL 10436017


The Net NPV after 4 years is 426784

(10436017 - 10009233 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10009233) -10009233 - -
Year 1 3447943 -6561290 3447943 0.8333 2873286
Year 2 3960527 -2600763 7408470 0.6944 2750366
Year 3 3943792 1343029 11352262 0.5787 2282287
Year 4 3235611 4578640 14587873 0.4823 1560383
TOTAL 9466322


The Net NPV after 4 years is -542911

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9466322 - 10009233 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Invest Childhood to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Invest Childhood has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Invest Childhood can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Invest Childhood, then the stock price of the Invest Childhood should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Invest Childhood should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Stacey Childress, Geoff Marietta (2018), "Invest Early: Early Childhood Development in a Rural Community Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.