The Transformation of Mudo Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The Transformation of Mudo case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The Transformation of Mudo case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Anthony J. Mayo, Esel Cekin, Cigdem Celik. The The Transformation of Mudo (referred as “Karakulluka Mudo” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Change management, Developing employees, Emerging markets, Growth strategy, Leadership, Organizational culture.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The Transformation of Mudo Case Study

After 16 years in management consulting, BarA?AY KarakullukA?u left to become the CEO of Mudo in 2012, one of the best-known names in Turkey's retail industry. She was tasked with leading Mudo's transition from a family business to a more institutionalized, corporate structure and ensuring a smooth handover of the company from the first to the second-generation owner. As CEO, she makes a series of difficult decisions to transform the company. She develops a new performance management system, reengineers most of the operations, and replaces 80% of the management team including several C-level executives. Two years later, the impact on operations is positive, however the company's profitability continues to struggle. KarakullukA?u must decide how best to move forward. While the founder seeks rapid and opportunistic growth, KarakullukA?u believes that the company should stabilize its cost structure and limit expansion plans.

Case Authors : Anthony J. Mayo, Esel Cekin, Cigdem Celik

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Change management, Developing employees, Emerging markets, Growth strategy, Leadership, Organizational culture

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The Transformation of Mudo Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021381)	-10021381	-	-
Year 1	3472981	-6548400	3472981	0.9434	3276397
Year 2	3961458	-2586942	7434439	0.89	3525684
Year 3	3944679	1357737	11379118	0.8396	3312029
Year 4	3248547	4606284	14627665	0.7921	2573153
TOTAL			14627665		12687263

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2665882

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Karakulluka Mudo have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Karakulluka Mudo shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The Transformation of Mudo

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Karakulluka Mudo often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Karakulluka Mudo needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021381)	-10021381	-	-
Year 1	3472981	-6548400	3472981	0.8696	3019983
Year 2	3961458	-2586942	7434439	0.7561	2995431
Year 3	3944679	1357737	11379118	0.6575	2593690
Year 4	3248547	4606284	14627665	0.5718	1857367
TOTAL					10466473

The Net NPV after 4 years is 445092

(10466473 - 10021381 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021381)	-10021381	-	-
Year 1	3472981	-6548400	3472981	0.8333	2894151
Year 2	3961458	-2586942	7434439	0.6944	2751013
Year 3	3944679	1357737	11379118	0.5787	2282800
Year 4	3248547	4606284	14627665	0.4823	1566622
TOTAL					9494585

The Net NPV after 4 years is -526796

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9494585 - 10021381 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Karakulluka Mudo to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Karakulluka Mudo has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Karakulluka Mudo can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Karakulluka Mudo, then the stock price of the Karakulluka Mudo should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Karakulluka Mudo should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The Transformation of Mudo

References & Further Readings

Anthony J. Mayo, Esel Cekin, Cigdem Celik (2018), "The Transformation of Mudo Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.