To Build a Different Model: The Case for Preservation of Affordable Housing, Inc. Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for To Build a Different Model: The Case for Preservation of Affordable Housing, Inc. case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. To Build a Different Model: The Case for Preservation of Affordable Housing, Inc. case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Alexander Von Hoffman. The To Build a Different Model: The Case for Preservation of Affordable Housing, Inc. (referred as “Poah Housing” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Organizational structure, Policy, Regulation, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of To Build a Different Model: The Case for Preservation of Affordable Housing, Inc. Case Study

This case study examines the business model of the Preservation of Affordable Housing, Inc., (POAH) and its applicability to nonprofit housing providers. POAH is one of the premier socially conscious low-income housing developers and owners in the United States. Its primary mission is to purchase large, multi-family properties and refinance them for long-term affordability. As of 2010, POAH has rescued and refinanced more than 4,900 units of affordable rental housing in eight states and the District of Columbia. Since its founding in 2001, POAH has been unique among preservation owners not only for its business model - which attends closely to the bottom line of every transaction - but also for its commitment to policy and regulatory reform affecting a range of housing affordability issues. This case invites the readers to explore many dimensions of organizational strategy for nonprofit housing companies. In the world of nonprofits POAH is unusual in many ways including its origins-as it was formed in order to complete an acquisition of a significant subsidized low-income housing portfolio its organizational structure, which combines for-profit and nonprofit companies its financial model which emphasizes returning profits to the company and increasing cash flow as opposed to developer fees and especially property management fees its ability to influence government officials to modify regulatory policies to suit the needs of nonprofit housing groups. Finally, the case explores the larger importance of POAH for the low-income housing field.

Case Authors : Alexander Von Hoffman

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Organizational structure, Policy, Regulation, Strategic planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for To Build a Different Model: The Case for Preservation of Affordable Housing, Inc. Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028003)	-10028003	-	-
Year 1	3446757	-6581246	3446757	0.9434	3251658
Year 2	3967582	-2613664	7414339	0.89	3531134
Year 3	3944536	1330872	11358875	0.8396	3311908
Year 4	3243110	4573982	14601985	0.7921	2568847
TOTAL			14601985		12663547

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2635544

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Poah Housing shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Poah Housing have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of To Build a Different Model: The Case for Preservation of Affordable Housing, Inc.

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Poah Housing often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Poah Housing needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028003)	-10028003	-	-
Year 1	3446757	-6581246	3446757	0.8696	2997180
Year 2	3967582	-2613664	7414339	0.7561	3000062
Year 3	3944536	1330872	11358875	0.6575	2593596
Year 4	3243110	4573982	14601985	0.5718	1854259
TOTAL					10445097

The Net NPV after 4 years is 417094

(10445097 - 10028003 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028003)	-10028003	-	-
Year 1	3446757	-6581246	3446757	0.8333	2872298
Year 2	3967582	-2613664	7414339	0.6944	2755265
Year 3	3944536	1330872	11358875	0.5787	2282718
Year 4	3243110	4573982	14601985	0.4823	1564000
TOTAL					9474280

The Net NPV after 4 years is -553723

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9474280 - 10028003 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Poah Housing to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Poah Housing has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Poah Housing can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Poah Housing, then the stock price of the Poah Housing should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Poah Housing should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of To Build a Different Model: The Case for Preservation of Affordable Housing, Inc.

References & Further Readings

Alexander Von Hoffman (2018), "To Build a Different Model: The Case for Preservation of Affordable Housing, Inc. Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.