Bradley Marquez: Reduction in Force (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Bradley Marquez: Reduction in Force (A) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Bradley Marquez: Reduction in Force (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Thomas J. DeLong, Vineeta Vijayaraghavan. The Bradley Marquez: Reduction in Force (A) (referred as “Marquez Bradley” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Human resource management, Organizational culture.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Bradley Marquez: Reduction in Force (A) Case Study

The Bradley Marquez advertising agency had created a successful niche delivering ethnic markets to their clients, corporate giants like Compaq, Sprint, Texaco, and British Airways. The company was operating in aggressive growth mode when, in 2000, the stock market bubble of the 1990s burst. Now, Andrew Lauder, chief operating officer, faces the possibility of a second round of layoffs and downsizing, "no longer cutting fat but cutting muscle," as Lauder puts it. Being a public company means that warning of upcoming layoffs would violate securities laws.

Case Authors : Thomas J. DeLong, Vineeta Vijayaraghavan

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Human resource management, Organizational culture

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Bradley Marquez: Reduction in Force (A) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029672)	-10029672	-	-
Year 1	3467342	-6562330	3467342	0.9434	3271077
Year 2	3955354	-2606976	7422696	0.89	3520251
Year 3	3966734	1359758	11389430	0.8396	3330546
Year 4	3224172	4583930	14613602	0.7921	2553846
TOTAL			14613602		12675721

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2646049

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Marquez Bradley have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Marquez Bradley shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Bradley Marquez: Reduction in Force (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Marquez Bradley often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Marquez Bradley needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029672)	-10029672	-	-
Year 1	3467342	-6562330	3467342	0.8696	3015080
Year 2	3955354	-2606976	7422696	0.7561	2990816
Year 3	3966734	1359758	11389430	0.6575	2608192
Year 4	3224172	4583930	14613602	0.5718	1843431
TOTAL					10457519

The Net NPV after 4 years is 427847

(10457519 - 10029672 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029672)	-10029672	-	-
Year 1	3467342	-6562330	3467342	0.8333	2889452
Year 2	3955354	-2606976	7422696	0.6944	2746774
Year 3	3966734	1359758	11389430	0.5787	2295564
Year 4	3224172	4583930	14613602	0.4823	1554867
TOTAL					9486656

The Net NPV after 4 years is -543016

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9486656 - 10029672 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Marquez Bradley to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Marquez Bradley has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Marquez Bradley can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Marquez Bradley, then the stock price of the Marquez Bradley should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Marquez Bradley should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Bradley Marquez: Reduction in Force (A)

References & Further Readings

Thomas J. DeLong, Vineeta Vijayaraghavan (2018), "Bradley Marquez: Reduction in Force (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.