Judah Folkman and the War on Cancer Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Judah Folkman and the War on Cancer case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Judah Folkman and the War on Cancer case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jonathan West, Mona Ashiya, Ambuj Sagar. The Judah Folkman and the War on Cancer (referred as “Folkman Judah” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Communication, Conflict, Leadership, Motivating people, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Judah Folkman and the War on Cancer Case Study

Judah Folkman, professor in the Division of Vascular Biology at Children's Hospital in Boston, is considering how best to advance the research in his lab in an era where biomedical research has gotten more interdisciplinary and collaborative. Specifically, Folkman has to consider how to foster collaborations even as lab members have to contend with various incentives that propel them toward demonstrating independence for their career advancement and, hence, sometimes resisting collaboration. Also highlights trends in the academic job market as well as in funding in the biomedical research field.

Case Authors : Jonathan West, Mona Ashiya, Ambuj Sagar

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Communication, Conflict, Leadership, Motivating people, Strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Judah Folkman and the War on Cancer Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029768)	-10029768	-	-
Year 1	3458798	-6570970	3458798	0.9434	3263017
Year 2	3960678	-2610292	7419476	0.89	3524989
Year 3	3966727	1356435	11386203	0.8396	3330540
Year 4	3240296	4596731	14626499	0.7921	2566618
TOTAL			14626499		12685165

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2655397

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Folkman Judah shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Folkman Judah have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Judah Folkman and the War on Cancer

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Folkman Judah often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Folkman Judah needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029768)	-10029768	-	-
Year 1	3458798	-6570970	3458798	0.8696	3007650
Year 2	3960678	-2610292	7419476	0.7561	2994842
Year 3	3966727	1356435	11386203	0.6575	2608187
Year 4	3240296	4596731	14626499	0.5718	1852650
TOTAL					10463329

The Net NPV after 4 years is 433561

(10463329 - 10029768 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10029768)	-10029768	-	-
Year 1	3458798	-6570970	3458798	0.8333	2882332
Year 2	3960678	-2610292	7419476	0.6944	2750471
Year 3	3966727	1356435	11386203	0.5787	2295560
Year 4	3240296	4596731	14626499	0.4823	1562643
TOTAL					9491005

The Net NPV after 4 years is -538763

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9491005 - 10029768 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Folkman Judah to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Folkman Judah has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Folkman Judah can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Folkman Judah, then the stock price of the Folkman Judah should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Folkman Judah should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Judah Folkman and the War on Cancer

References & Further Readings

Jonathan West, Mona Ashiya, Ambuj Sagar (2018), "Judah Folkman and the War on Cancer Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.