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Petrobras: "Its First Child", Spanish Version Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Petrobras: "Its First Child", Spanish Version case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Petrobras: "Its First Child", Spanish Version case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Javier Jorge Silva, Femando Zerboni, Esteban Coppolillo, Andres Chehtman. The Petrobras: "Its First Child", Spanish Version (referred as “Petrobras Argentine” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Customers, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Petrobras: "Its First Child", Spanish Version Case Study


In 2002, Brazilian-based Petrobras joined the Argentine fuel retail (gas stations) market. The venture faced several challenges. On the one hand, Argentina was undergoing one of the most severe economic and social crises in history. On the other, the local fuel market was dominated by a few players with brands that held significant consumer mindshare over many years. Additionally, employee morale at Eg3, the company acquired by Petrobras to enter the local market, was besieged by uncertainty and disillusionment as a result of a string of mergers and acquisitions and underlying H.R. management remoteness. Finally, the company's Brazilian origin could jeopardize its appeal for Argentine consumers, given the cultural and sports-based (soccer) rivalry between these neighboring countries. The case presents this scenario and calls for decisions as to which market segment(s) it should target, how it should brand its stations, and what other related marketing decisions it should make given it domestic and international ambitions. This case received the 2007 Curtis E. Tate Jr. Award for the best case published in Case Research Journal and is also available in Spanish and Portuguese versions.


Case Authors : Javier Jorge Silva, Femando Zerboni, Esteban Coppolillo, Andres Chehtman

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Customers, Supply chain




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Petrobras: "Its First Child", Spanish Version Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10003080) -10003080 - -
Year 1 3457691 -6545389 3457691 0.9434 3261973
Year 2 3955825 -2589564 7413516 0.89 3520670
Year 3 3957143 1367579 11370659 0.8396 3322494
Year 4 3226517 4594096 14597176 0.7921 2555704
TOTAL 14597176 12660840


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2657760

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Petrobras Argentine have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Petrobras Argentine shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Petrobras: "Its First Child", Spanish Version

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Petrobras Argentine often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Petrobras Argentine needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10003080) -10003080 - -
Year 1 3457691 -6545389 3457691 0.8696 3006688
Year 2 3955825 -2589564 7413516 0.7561 2991172
Year 3 3957143 1367579 11370659 0.6575 2601886
Year 4 3226517 4594096 14597176 0.5718 1844772
TOTAL 10444517


The Net NPV after 4 years is 441437

(10444517 - 10003080 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10003080) -10003080 - -
Year 1 3457691 -6545389 3457691 0.8333 2881409
Year 2 3955825 -2589564 7413516 0.6944 2747101
Year 3 3957143 1367579 11370659 0.5787 2290013
Year 4 3226517 4594096 14597176 0.4823 1555998
TOTAL 9474521


The Net NPV after 4 years is -528559

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9474521 - 10003080 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Petrobras Argentine to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Petrobras Argentine has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Petrobras Argentine can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Petrobras Argentine, then the stock price of the Petrobras Argentine should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Petrobras Argentine should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Javier Jorge Silva, Femando Zerboni, Esteban Coppolillo, Andres Chehtman (2018), "Petrobras: "Its First Child", Spanish Version Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.