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Green Hills Market Loyalty Program Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Green Hills Market Loyalty Program case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Green Hills Market Loyalty Program case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by James Lattin, Meredith P. Jensen. The Green Hills Market Loyalty Program (referred as “Hills Arzberg” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IT, Motivating people, Sales.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Green Hills Market Loyalty Program Case Study


With the competitive 2007 holiday season approaching, Gary Hawkins (CEO of Green Hills Market, an independent grocery retailer in Syracuse, NY) was looking for a promotional program that would keep his best customers coming to Green Hills for all of their holiday meal shopping. Hawkins knew that his larger competitors (such as Price Chopper, Wegmans, and Wal-Mart) would use their size and buying power to procure products at the lowest possible cost, enabling them to offer rock bottom prices. Hawkins was looking for a program that would take advantage of Green Hills' proprietary systems for tracking customers' buying patterns and shopping preferences. The promotional program under consideration was a continuity program, in which shoppers earned points that could be redeemed for pieces of Arzberg porcelain. Hawkins and his team needed to establish their objectives for the holiday season and decide whether or not the Arzberg promotion was right for Green Hills Market. The case can be accompanied by a data set ("M318 Green Hills Data Set") that captures weekly expenditures by a sample of 1000 households shopping at Green Hills Market before, during, and after the Arzberg promotional program. The students can use these data (and other information available in the case) to examine how well the Arzberg promotion actually worked. "M318 Green Hills Data Set" can be obtained from cases_requests@gsb.stanford.edu.


Case Authors : James Lattin, Meredith P. Jensen

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : IT, Motivating people, Sales




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Green Hills Market Loyalty Program Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10026581) -10026581 - -
Year 1 3471721 -6554860 3471721 0.9434 3275208
Year 2 3970611 -2584249 7442332 0.89 3533830
Year 3 3958548 1374299 11400880 0.8396 3323673
Year 4 3240921 4615220 14641801 0.7921 2567113
TOTAL 14641801 12699824


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2673243

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Hills Arzberg shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Hills Arzberg have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Green Hills Market Loyalty Program

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Hills Arzberg often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Hills Arzberg needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10026581) -10026581 - -
Year 1 3471721 -6554860 3471721 0.8696 3018888
Year 2 3970611 -2584249 7442332 0.7561 3002352
Year 3 3958548 1374299 11400880 0.6575 2602810
Year 4 3240921 4615220 14641801 0.5718 1853007
TOTAL 10477057


The Net NPV after 4 years is 450476

(10477057 - 10026581 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10026581) -10026581 - -
Year 1 3471721 -6554860 3471721 0.8333 2893101
Year 2 3970611 -2584249 7442332 0.6944 2757369
Year 3 3958548 1374299 11400880 0.5787 2290826
Year 4 3240921 4615220 14641801 0.4823 1562944
TOTAL 9504240


The Net NPV after 4 years is -522341

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9504240 - 10026581 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Hills Arzberg to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Hills Arzberg has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Hills Arzberg can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Hills Arzberg, then the stock price of the Hills Arzberg should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Hills Arzberg should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

James Lattin, Meredith P. Jensen (2018), "Green Hills Market Loyalty Program Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.