Natural Gas Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Natural Gas case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Natural Gas case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Rawi Abdelal, Sogomon Tarontsi. The Natural Gas (referred as “Gas Natural” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Marketing, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Natural Gas Case Study

In an overview of natural gas as a fossil fuel and traded commodity, the case describes various regional markets of natural gas, highlighting diversity of price formation mechanisms across and within those markets. Recent changes in the economics of unconventional natural gas extraction-"the shale revolution"-could potentially remake those markets, steering the world toward the "golden age" of natural gas.

Case Authors : Rawi Abdelal, Sogomon Tarontsi

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Marketing, Strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Natural Gas Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025027)	-10025027	-	-
Year 1	3469002	-6556025	3469002	0.9434	3272643
Year 2	3980938	-2575087	7449940	0.89	3543021
Year 3	3974648	1399561	11424588	0.8396	3337191
Year 4	3236578	4636139	14661166	0.7921	2563673
TOTAL			14661166		12716528

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2691501

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Gas Natural shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Gas Natural have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Natural Gas

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Gas Natural often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Gas Natural needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025027)	-10025027	-	-
Year 1	3469002	-6556025	3469002	0.8696	3016523
Year 2	3980938	-2575087	7449940	0.7561	3010161
Year 3	3974648	1399561	11424588	0.6575	2613396
Year 4	3236578	4636139	14661166	0.5718	1850524
TOTAL					10490604

The Net NPV after 4 years is 465577

(10490604 - 10025027 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025027)	-10025027	-	-
Year 1	3469002	-6556025	3469002	0.8333	2890835
Year 2	3980938	-2575087	7449940	0.6944	2764540
Year 3	3974648	1399561	11424588	0.5787	2300144
Year 4	3236578	4636139	14661166	0.4823	1560850
TOTAL					9516369

The Net NPV after 4 years is -508658

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9516369 - 10025027 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Gas Natural to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Gas Natural has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Gas Natural can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Gas Natural, then the stock price of the Gas Natural should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Gas Natural should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Natural Gas

References & Further Readings

Rawi Abdelal, Sogomon Tarontsi (2018), "Natural Gas Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.