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MySQL Open Source Database in 2004 Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for MySQL Open Source Database in 2004 case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. MySQL Open Source Database in 2004 case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Robert A. Burgelman, Sami Inkinen, Christof Wittig. The MySQL Open Source Database in 2004 (referred as “Mysql Foothold” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Data, Decision making, Disruptive innovation, Internet, IT, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of MySQL Open Source Database in 2004 Case Study


In 2004, MySQL was a small, $10 million Scandinavian software company that seriously challenged the big three IT companies, IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle, in their high-margin, $10 billion database business. A new phenomenon in the software industry--open source--provided ways for new entrants to challenge the incumbents and gain a foothold in a low-cost segment of the market. This case provides the opportunity to study the forces that would determine whether MySQL could change the database software category in the way Linux did for server operating system space. MySQL relied on a low-cost business model with a global, virtual organization, and the case frames the question of whether this innovative, Internet-based business model could be scaled into a large, profitable growth company. The case describes the open source software phenomenon through a specific case, MySQL, and the innovator's dilemma: MySQL gained a foothold by serving the needs of the growing Web services market that was ignored by the big three DBMS players. After the foothold was established, MySQL was in the position potentially to challenge every DBMS player in the market.


Case Authors : Robert A. Burgelman, Sami Inkinen, Christof Wittig

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Data, Decision making, Disruptive innovation, Internet, IT, Strategic planning




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for MySQL Open Source Database in 2004 Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10025237) -10025237 - -
Year 1 3444301 -6580936 3444301 0.9434 3249341
Year 2 3972457 -2608479 7416758 0.89 3535473
Year 3 3943657 1335178 11360415 0.8396 3311170
Year 4 3223711 4558889 14584126 0.7921 2553481
TOTAL 14584126 12649465




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2624228

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Mysql Foothold have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Mysql Foothold shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of MySQL Open Source Database in 2004

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Mysql Foothold often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Mysql Foothold needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10025237) -10025237 - -
Year 1 3444301 -6580936 3444301 0.8696 2995044
Year 2 3972457 -2608479 7416758 0.7561 3003748
Year 3 3943657 1335178 11360415 0.6575 2593018
Year 4 3223711 4558889 14584126 0.5718 1843167
TOTAL 10434978


The Net NPV after 4 years is 409741

(10434978 - 10025237 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10025237) -10025237 - -
Year 1 3444301 -6580936 3444301 0.8333 2870251
Year 2 3972457 -2608479 7416758 0.6944 2758651
Year 3 3943657 1335178 11360415 0.5787 2282209
Year 4 3223711 4558889 14584126 0.4823 1554645
TOTAL 9465755


The Net NPV after 4 years is -559482

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9465755 - 10025237 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Mysql Foothold to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Mysql Foothold has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Mysql Foothold can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Mysql Foothold, then the stock price of the Mysql Foothold should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Mysql Foothold should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of MySQL Open Source Database in 2004

References & Further Readings

Robert A. Burgelman, Sami Inkinen, Christof Wittig (2018), "MySQL Open Source Database in 2004 Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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