Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Robert L. Simons. The Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan (referred as “Module Profit” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Budgeting, Corporate governance, Performance measurement, Strategic planning, Strategy execution.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan Case Study

This module reading describes how to build a profit plan to reflect the strategy of a business in economic terms. After introducing the profit wheel, cash wheel, and ROE wheel, the module illustrates how to use a profit plan to assess the viability of different strategies and evaluate whether sufficient resources will be available to implement the chosen strategy. The module examines in detail how to develop accurate estimates for sales, profit, cash flow, asset turnover, investment in new assets, and return on equity. The discussion then turns to how to gather and analyze data and the effects of sensitivity analysis on predictions. The module concludes by illustrating the critical role of a profit plan in setting goals, communicating expectations to the investment community, and evaluating the performance of individual managers and businesses. While this module is designed to be used alone, it is part of the Strategy Execution series. Taken together, the series forms a complete course that teaches the latest techniques for using performance measurement and control systems to implement strategy. Modules 1 - 4 set out the foundations for strategy implementation. Modules 5 - 10 teach quantitative tools for performance measurement and control. Modules 11 - 15 illustrate the use of these techniques by managers to achieve profit goals and strategies. View the full Strategy Execution series at: hbsp.harvard.edu/strategyexecution.

Case Authors : Robert L. Simons

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Budgeting, Corporate governance, Performance measurement, Strategic planning, Strategy execution

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007660)	-10007660	-	-
Year 1	3460115	-6547545	3460115	0.9434	3264259
Year 2	3953156	-2594389	7413271	0.89	3518295
Year 3	3941193	1346804	11354464	0.8396	3309102
Year 4	3227085	4573889	14581549	0.7921	2556154
TOTAL			14581549		12647809

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2640149

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Module Profit have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Module Profit shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Module Profit often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Module Profit needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007660)	-10007660	-	-
Year 1	3460115	-6547545	3460115	0.8696	3008796
Year 2	3953156	-2594389	7413271	0.7561	2989154
Year 3	3941193	1346804	11354464	0.6575	2591398
Year 4	3227085	4573889	14581549	0.5718	1845096
TOTAL					10434444

The Net NPV after 4 years is 426784

(10434444 - 10007660 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007660)	-10007660	-	-
Year 1	3460115	-6547545	3460115	0.8333	2883429
Year 2	3953156	-2594389	7413271	0.6944	2745247
Year 3	3941193	1346804	11354464	0.5787	2280783
Year 4	3227085	4573889	14581549	0.4823	1556272
TOTAL					9465731

The Net NPV after 4 years is -541929

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9465731 - 10007660 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Module Profit to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Module Profit has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Module Profit can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Module Profit, then the stock price of the Module Profit should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Module Profit should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan

References & Further Readings

Robert L. Simons (2018), "Strategy Execution Module 5: Building a Profit Plan Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.