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Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A) case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Benjamin C. Esty, Stuart C. Gilson, Aldo Sesia. The Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A) (referred as “Cook Thomas” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Communication, Crisis management, Executive compensation, Financial management, Growth strategy, Reorganization.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A) Case Study


Harriett Green, the newly appointed CEO of Thomas Cook Group, faces a daunting set of business and financial challenges at the 171-year old UK travel services company. The company has lost almost A£600 million in the last three-quarters; has seen its stock price fall from 230 pence to a low of 8.8p in the past two years; and had seen its bonds trade down to as little as 40% of face value. In just a few weeks the company's license to operate is to be reviewed by the United Kingdom's Civil Aviation Authority, competitors are publicly questioning the company's viability, and seasonal working capital needs are about to peak. With the company's very survival at stake, Green must devise a turnaround plan that will return the company to financial health. Any plan must address the company's high-cost structure, raise substantial new capital, fix the balance sheet, create a profitable growth strategy, and build a more effective organization and culture. But achieving all of these objectives within the short time available will be a major challenge.


Case Authors : Benjamin C. Esty, Stuart C. Gilson, Aldo Sesia

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Communication, Crisis management, Executive compensation, Financial management, Growth strategy, Reorganization




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A) Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023058) -10023058 - -
Year 1 3461249 -6561809 3461249 0.9434 3265329
Year 2 3960509 -2601300 7421758 0.89 3524839
Year 3 3952531 1351231 11374289 0.8396 3318621
Year 4 3246502 4597733 14620791 0.7921 2571534
TOTAL 14620791 12680323




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2657265

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Cook Thomas have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Cook Thomas shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Cook Thomas often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Cook Thomas needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023058) -10023058 - -
Year 1 3461249 -6561809 3461249 0.8696 3009782
Year 2 3960509 -2601300 7421758 0.7561 2994714
Year 3 3952531 1351231 11374289 0.6575 2598853
Year 4 3246502 4597733 14620791 0.5718 1856198
TOTAL 10459547


The Net NPV after 4 years is 436489

(10459547 - 10023058 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023058) -10023058 - -
Year 1 3461249 -6561809 3461249 0.8333 2884374
Year 2 3960509 -2601300 7421758 0.6944 2750353
Year 3 3952531 1351231 11374289 0.5787 2287344
Year 4 3246502 4597733 14620791 0.4823 1565636
TOTAL 9487708


The Net NPV after 4 years is -535350

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487708 - 10023058 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Cook Thomas to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Cook Thomas has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Cook Thomas can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Cook Thomas, then the stock price of the Cook Thomas should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Cook Thomas should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A)

References & Further Readings

Benjamin C. Esty, Stuart C. Gilson, Aldo Sesia (2018), "Thomas Cook Group on the Brink (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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