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Royal Mail plc: Cost of Capital Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Royal Mail plc: Cost of Capital case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Royal Mail plc: Cost of Capital case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Michael J. Schill. The Royal Mail plc: Cost of Capital (referred as “Royal Mail” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Royal Mail plc: Cost of Capital Case Study


This case examines the cost of capital estimation for British postal service company Royal Mail plc in 2015-a time when company managers and government regulators were adjusting to private ownership after 500 years of government ownership. The case features a flawed cost of capital estimation analysis that includes common blunders. Students are invited to evaluate this analysis and provide their own alternative estimate for the cost of capital for Royal Mail.


Case Authors : Michael J. Schill

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas :




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Royal Mail plc: Cost of Capital Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10025128) -10025128 - -
Year 1 3452537 -6572591 3452537 0.9434 3257110
Year 2 3954269 -2618322 7406806 0.89 3519285
Year 3 3940544 1322222 11347350 0.8396 3308557
Year 4 3235786 4558008 14583136 0.7921 2563046
TOTAL 14583136 12647998


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2622870

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Royal Mail have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Royal Mail shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Royal Mail plc: Cost of Capital

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Royal Mail often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Royal Mail needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10025128) -10025128 - -
Year 1 3452537 -6572591 3452537 0.8696 3002206
Year 2 3954269 -2618322 7406806 0.7561 2989995
Year 3 3940544 1322222 11347350 0.6575 2590972
Year 4 3235786 4558008 14583136 0.5718 1850071
TOTAL 10433244


The Net NPV after 4 years is 408116

(10433244 - 10025128 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10025128) -10025128 - -
Year 1 3452537 -6572591 3452537 0.8333 2877114
Year 2 3954269 -2618322 7406806 0.6944 2746020
Year 3 3940544 1322222 11347350 0.5787 2280407
Year 4 3235786 4558008 14583136 0.4823 1560468
TOTAL 9464009


The Net NPV after 4 years is -561119

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9464009 - 10025128 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Royal Mail to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Royal Mail has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Royal Mail can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Royal Mail, then the stock price of the Royal Mail should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Royal Mail should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Michael J. Schill (2018), "Royal Mail plc: Cost of Capital Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.