×




Safeway Manufacturing Division: The Manufacturing Control System (MCS) (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Safeway Manufacturing Division: The Manufacturing Control System (MCS) (A) case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Safeway Manufacturing Division: The Manufacturing Control System (MCS) (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Donna B. Stoddard, Maryellen Costello. The Safeway Manufacturing Division: The Manufacturing Control System (MCS) (A) (referred as “Mcs Smd” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IT, Manufacturing, Strategic planning, Strategy execution.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Safeway Manufacturing Division: The Manufacturing Control System (MCS) (A) Case Study


Describes a decision that SMD management made to implement an MRP II system in its 38 plants. Raises the issues that needed to be addressed to enable the implementation, and is positioned so the students can develop a detailed implementation plan.


Case Authors : Donna B. Stoddard, Maryellen Costello

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : IT, Manufacturing, Strategic planning, Strategy execution




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Safeway Manufacturing Division: The Manufacturing Control System (MCS) (A) Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027441) -10027441 - -
Year 1 3470698 -6556743 3470698 0.9434 3274243
Year 2 3975676 -2581067 7446374 0.89 3538337
Year 3 3949252 1368185 11395626 0.8396 3315868
Year 4 3225341 4593526 14620967 0.7921 2554772
TOTAL 14620967 12683221




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2655780

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Mcs Smd shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Mcs Smd have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Safeway Manufacturing Division: The Manufacturing Control System (MCS) (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Mcs Smd often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Mcs Smd needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027441) -10027441 - -
Year 1 3470698 -6556743 3470698 0.8696 3017998
Year 2 3975676 -2581067 7446374 0.7561 3006182
Year 3 3949252 1368185 11395626 0.6575 2596697
Year 4 3225341 4593526 14620967 0.5718 1844099
TOTAL 10464977


The Net NPV after 4 years is 437536

(10464977 - 10027441 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027441) -10027441 - -
Year 1 3470698 -6556743 3470698 0.8333 2892248
Year 2 3975676 -2581067 7446374 0.6944 2760886
Year 3 3949252 1368185 11395626 0.5787 2285447
Year 4 3225341 4593526 14620967 0.4823 1555431
TOTAL 9494012


The Net NPV after 4 years is -533429

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9494012 - 10027441 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Mcs Smd to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Mcs Smd has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Mcs Smd can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Mcs Smd, then the stock price of the Mcs Smd should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Mcs Smd should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Safeway Manufacturing Division: The Manufacturing Control System (MCS) (A)

References & Further Readings

Donna B. Stoddard, Maryellen Costello (2018), "Safeway Manufacturing Division: The Manufacturing Control System (MCS) (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


Osangjaiel SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Technology , Software & Programming


Tokai Kisen SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Transportation , Water Transportation


Williamson Magor Co Ltd SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Financial , Consumer Financial Services


RH SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Services , Retail (Specialty)


Baoding Lucky Innovative Materials SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Consumer Cyclical , Audio & Video Equipment


Nikon Corp. SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Technology , Scientific & Technical Instr.