The dynamics of CIO derailment: How CIOs come undone and how to avoid it Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The dynamics of CIO derailment: How CIOs come undone and how to avoid it case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The dynamics of CIO derailment: How CIOs come undone and how to avoid it case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Anthony B. Gerth, Joe Peppard. The The dynamics of CIO derailment: How CIOs come undone and how to avoid it (referred as “Derailment Cio” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Leadership.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The dynamics of CIO derailment: How CIOs come undone and how to avoid it Case Study

With information technology (IT) becoming ever more ubiquitous and pervasive, the resulting deluge of data is driving a wave of digital disruption. No industry, it seems, is immune, and business performance is increasingly dependent on the effective use of IT and investments in technology that generate real business benefits. Yet research continues to report that most of these investments don't pay off as expected. Blame for such scenarios is normally placed at the feet of the Chief Information Officer (CIO). Some commentators have even suggested that it is now time to replace the CIO role with that of CDO (Chief Digital Officer). This line of thinking ignores the inherent organizational dynamics that lead to the derailment of the executive in charge of IT; merely changing the job title won't fix the problem. This article uses research conducted over the course of 8 years to illuminate reasons why CIO leaders are derailed, and what they and the CEO can do to avoid this outcome. Causes of derailment are presented in detail, and prescriptive advice is given for CIOs and CEOs alike regarding how to address causes of executive failure in leading the digital transformation of organizations.

Case Authors : Anthony B. Gerth, Joe Peppard

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Leadership

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The dynamics of CIO derailment: How CIOs come undone and how to avoid it Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019857)	-10019857	-	-
Year 1	3443226	-6576631	3443226	0.9434	3248326
Year 2	3977224	-2599407	7420450	0.89	3539715
Year 3	3957818	1358411	11378268	0.8396	3323060
Year 4	3243683	4602094	14621951	0.7921	2569301
TOTAL			14621951		12680403

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2660546

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Derailment Cio have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Derailment Cio shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The dynamics of CIO derailment: How CIOs come undone and how to avoid it

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Derailment Cio often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Derailment Cio needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019857)	-10019857	-	-
Year 1	3443226	-6576631	3443226	0.8696	2994110
Year 2	3977224	-2599407	7420450	0.7561	3007353
Year 3	3957818	1358411	11378268	0.6575	2602330
Year 4	3243683	4602094	14621951	0.5718	1854586
TOTAL					10458378

The Net NPV after 4 years is 438521

(10458378 - 10019857 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019857)	-10019857	-	-
Year 1	3443226	-6576631	3443226	0.8333	2869355
Year 2	3977224	-2599407	7420450	0.6944	2761961
Year 3	3957818	1358411	11378268	0.5787	2290404
Year 4	3243683	4602094	14621951	0.4823	1564276
TOTAL					9485996

The Net NPV after 4 years is -533861

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485996 - 10019857 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Derailment Cio to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Derailment Cio has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Derailment Cio can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Derailment Cio, then the stock price of the Derailment Cio should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Derailment Cio should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The dynamics of CIO derailment: How CIOs come undone and how to avoid it

References & Further Readings

Anthony B. Gerth, Joe Peppard (2018), "The dynamics of CIO derailment: How CIOs come undone and how to avoid it Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.