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NPV: McPhee Distillers: Accounting Policy Choices in the Preparation of Financial Statements Net Present Value Case Analysis
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McPhee Distillers: Accounting Policy Choices in the Preparation of Financial Statements Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for McPhee Distillers: Accounting Policy Choices in the Preparation of Financial Statements case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. McPhee Distillers: Accounting Policy Choices in the Preparation of Financial Statements case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mitchell Stein, Vaughan Radcliffe, Adam Erickson. The McPhee Distillers: Accounting Policy Choices in the Preparation of Financial Statements (referred as “Mcphee Whisky” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial analysis, Financial management, Manufacturing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of McPhee Distillers: Accounting Policy Choices in the Preparation of Financial Statements Case Study


In 2014, the master distiller from an established Scotch whisky producer founded McPhee Distillers on Vancouver Island, Canada, hoping to capitalize on the growing demand for whisky in the Asia-Pacific region in particular. Rather than competing with larger producers selling by the bottle, McPhee planned to sell whisky exclusively by the barrel, hoping to differentiate McPhee Distillers in the industry. As a first-time entrepreneur, the master distiller was surprised by the amount of overhead costs, but she was determined that there were no costs she could cut without compromising the quality of the whisky. Was her business model profitable, or had she made an error by focusing on barrel sales? Could she improve her operations?


Case Authors : Mitchell Stein, Vaughan Radcliffe, Adam Erickson

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial analysis, Financial management, Manufacturing




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for McPhee Distillers: Accounting Policy Choices in the Preparation of Financial Statements Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015785) -10015785 - -
Year 1 3452397 -6563388 3452397 0.9434 3256978
Year 2 3960144 -2603244 7412541 0.89 3524514
Year 3 3954043 1350799 11366584 0.8396 3319891
Year 4 3224898 4575697 14591482 0.7921 2554421
TOTAL 14591482 12655804


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2640019

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Mcphee Whisky shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Mcphee Whisky have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of McPhee Distillers: Accounting Policy Choices in the Preparation of Financial Statements

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Mcphee Whisky often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Mcphee Whisky needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015785) -10015785 - -
Year 1 3452397 -6563388 3452397 0.8696 3002084
Year 2 3960144 -2603244 7412541 0.7561 2994438
Year 3 3954043 1350799 11366584 0.6575 2599847
Year 4 3224898 4575697 14591482 0.5718 1843846
TOTAL 10440216


The Net NPV after 4 years is 424431

(10440216 - 10015785 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015785) -10015785 - -
Year 1 3452397 -6563388 3452397 0.8333 2876998
Year 2 3960144 -2603244 7412541 0.6944 2750100
Year 3 3954043 1350799 11366584 0.5787 2288219
Year 4 3224898 4575697 14591482 0.4823 1555217
TOTAL 9470534


The Net NPV after 4 years is -545251

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9470534 - 10015785 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Mcphee Whisky to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Mcphee Whisky has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Mcphee Whisky can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Mcphee Whisky, then the stock price of the Mcphee Whisky should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Mcphee Whisky should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Mitchell Stein, Vaughan Radcliffe, Adam Erickson (2018), "McPhee Distillers: Accounting Policy Choices in the Preparation of Financial Statements Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.