Process Management Strategy for XYZ Limited - KLTD Division Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Process Management Strategy for XYZ Limited - KLTD Division case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Process Management Strategy for XYZ Limited - KLTD Division case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Srinivasan Maheswaran. The Process Management Strategy for XYZ Limited - KLTD Division (referred as “Processing Tobacco” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Forecasting, Manufacturing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Process Management Strategy for XYZ Limited - KLTD Division Case Study

The case describes the situation faced by the vice-president of operations at Konkan Leaf Tobacco Development, the tobacco processing unit of XYZ Limited. This unit is in charge of procurement and processing of different varieties and grades of tobacco grown in southern India. The tobacco leaves are categorized into different varieties on the basis of quality and location of the crop. The company has two processing plants with varying processing capacities. Due to the seasonal and agricultural nature of the commodity, the company is finding it difficult to maintain efficiencies between the inflow of the tobacco and the requirement of the processing line capacity, resulting in frequent start-stop situations for the processing lines. This case enables students to develop strategies for the process management to achieve the optimum process schedule, which will result in the fewest stoppages of the process lines and optimization of both the utilization of the processing lines and the inflow patterns among the processing units.

Case Authors : Srinivasan Maheswaran

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Forecasting, Manufacturing

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Process Management Strategy for XYZ Limited - KLTD Division Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026425)	-10026425	-	-
Year 1	3447715	-6578710	3447715	0.9434	3252561
Year 2	3958451	-2620259	7406166	0.89	3523007
Year 3	3940325	1320066	11346491	0.8396	3308373
Year 4	3237059	4557125	14583550	0.7921	2564054
TOTAL			14583550		12647995

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2621570

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Processing Tobacco have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Processing Tobacco shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Process Management Strategy for XYZ Limited - KLTD Division

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Processing Tobacco often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Processing Tobacco needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026425)	-10026425	-	-
Year 1	3447715	-6578710	3447715	0.8696	2998013
Year 2	3958451	-2620259	7406166	0.7561	2993158
Year 3	3940325	1320066	11346491	0.6575	2590828
Year 4	3237059	4557125	14583550	0.5718	1850799
TOTAL					10432797

The Net NPV after 4 years is 406372

(10432797 - 10026425 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026425)	-10026425	-	-
Year 1	3447715	-6578710	3447715	0.8333	2873096
Year 2	3958451	-2620259	7406166	0.6944	2748924
Year 3	3940325	1320066	11346491	0.5787	2280281
Year 4	3237059	4557125	14583550	0.4823	1561082
TOTAL					9463383

The Net NPV after 4 years is -563042

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9463383 - 10026425 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Processing Tobacco to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Processing Tobacco has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Processing Tobacco can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Processing Tobacco, then the stock price of the Processing Tobacco should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Processing Tobacco should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Process Management Strategy for XYZ Limited - KLTD Division

References & Further Readings

Srinivasan Maheswaran (2018), "Process Management Strategy for XYZ Limited - KLTD Division Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.