The High Stakes of Low-Cost Competition Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The High Stakes of Low-Cost Competition case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The High Stakes of Low-Cost Competition case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Adrian Ryans. The The High Stakes of Low-Cost Competition (referred as “Low Cost” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Change management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The High Stakes of Low-Cost Competition Case Study

Low-cost competitors are on the offensive in many industries, from airlines to B2B capital equipment markets, eating away at the market share traditionally enjoyed by premium companies. Dealing with low-cost competition first requires understanding how radically the business model has changed: fewer companies are doing it all, but rather specializing in either product development or delivery or customer relationships. While there may be good reasons for adopting a more focused business strategy, companies need to realize how the interplay between premium and low-cost rivals is, in fact, fuelling the threat, which needs to be craftily managed. Using a multitude of real business examples, the author insists that companies today must learn how to take on low-cost competitors in the good-enough segment, develop hard-to-copy performance leadership products, and build deep and lasting relationships with their customers. A dual-pronged strategy - one that both challenges low-cost competitors in the good-enough segment, while also competing as a premium player using either performance leadership or relational value options - can serve to beat low-cost competitors at their own game.

Case Authors : Adrian Ryans

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Change management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The High Stakes of Low-Cost Competition Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027816)	-10027816	-	-
Year 1	3446909	-6580907	3446909	0.9434	3251801
Year 2	3982458	-2598449	7429367	0.89	3544373
Year 3	3955654	1357205	11385021	0.8396	3321243
Year 4	3237182	4594387	14622203	0.7921	2564151
TOTAL			14622203		12681569

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2653753

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Low Cost shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Low Cost have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The High Stakes of Low-Cost Competition

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Low Cost often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Low Cost needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027816)	-10027816	-	-
Year 1	3446909	-6580907	3446909	0.8696	2997312
Year 2	3982458	-2598449	7429367	0.7561	3011310
Year 3	3955654	1357205	11385021	0.6575	2600907
Year 4	3237182	4594387	14622203	0.5718	1850869
TOTAL					10460399

The Net NPV after 4 years is 432583

(10460399 - 10027816 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027816)	-10027816	-	-
Year 1	3446909	-6580907	3446909	0.8333	2872424
Year 2	3982458	-2598449	7429367	0.6944	2765596
Year 3	3955654	1357205	11385021	0.5787	2289152
Year 4	3237182	4594387	14622203	0.4823	1561141
TOTAL					9488313

The Net NPV after 4 years is -539503

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9488313 - 10027816 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Low Cost to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Low Cost has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Low Cost can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Low Cost, then the stock price of the Low Cost should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Low Cost should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The High Stakes of Low-Cost Competition

References & Further Readings

Adrian Ryans (2018), "The High Stakes of Low-Cost Competition Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.