The Leith Society: Managing International Growth for a Professional Development and Networking Firm Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The Leith Society: Managing International Growth for a Professional Development and Networking Firm case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The Leith Society: Managing International Growth for a Professional Development and Networking Firm case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Paul Tiffany. The The Leith Society: Managing International Growth for a Professional Development and Networking Firm (referred as “Leith Groth” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurial management, Growth strategy, International business, Managing people, Networking, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The Leith Society: Managing International Growth for a Professional Development and Networking Firm Case Study

In April 2017, Mr. Kristian Groth, a successful entrepreneur and founder of the Leith Society, was considering his next move. The Leith Society is a professional development and networking organization based in Copenhagen, Denmark. The firm differentiated itself from numerous competitors through its intensely personal approach, in which members (primarly businesspeople but also participants from the creative professions) sought out their true inner selves through interaction with groups of like-minded individuals facilitated by trained psychologists. No online presence was in place, and in fact was rejected by the founder. Less than four years old, annual revenues had grown to nearly 30 million DKK (about 4 million USD) from the 650+ active members, and margins approximated 40%. The firm had successfully transferred its value proposition to nearby Norway and the Netherlands (in Oslo and Amsterdam respectively), but Mr. Groth had his sights on larger markets. He had recently recruited a seasoned manager as CEO and tasked him with development of a detailed operating system which, he believed, would allow for rapid scaling of the organization into new markets. The two had undertaken a visit to the USA in that Spring of 2017 to explore options there; during the trip a meeting at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley with students in an MBA global strategy course raised the possibility of also entering China.

Case Authors : Paul Tiffany

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Entrepreneurial management, Growth strategy, International business, Managing people, Networking, Supply chain

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The Leith Society: Managing International Growth for a Professional Development and Networking Firm Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021634)	-10021634	-	-
Year 1	3469891	-6551743	3469891	0.9434	3273482
Year 2	3962014	-2589729	7431905	0.89	3526178
Year 3	3945643	1355914	11377548	0.8396	3312838
Year 4	3249335	4605249	14626883	0.7921	2573778
TOTAL			14626883		12686276

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2664642

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Leith Groth have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Leith Groth shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The Leith Society: Managing International Growth for a Professional Development and Networking Firm

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Leith Groth often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Leith Groth needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021634)	-10021634	-	-
Year 1	3469891	-6551743	3469891	0.8696	3017297
Year 2	3962014	-2589729	7431905	0.7561	2995852
Year 3	3945643	1355914	11377548	0.6575	2594324
Year 4	3249335	4605249	14626883	0.5718	1857818
TOTAL					10465290

The Net NPV after 4 years is 443656

(10465290 - 10021634 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021634)	-10021634	-	-
Year 1	3469891	-6551743	3469891	0.8333	2891576
Year 2	3962014	-2589729	7431905	0.6944	2751399
Year 3	3945643	1355914	11377548	0.5787	2283358
Year 4	3249335	4605249	14626883	0.4823	1567002
TOTAL					9493334

The Net NPV after 4 years is -528300

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9493334 - 10021634 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Leith Groth to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Leith Groth has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Leith Groth can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Leith Groth, then the stock price of the Leith Groth should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Leith Groth should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The Leith Society: Managing International Growth for a Professional Development and Networking Firm

References & Further Readings

Paul Tiffany (2018), "The Leith Society: Managing International Growth for a Professional Development and Networking Firm Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.