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Disruption in Detroit: Ford, Silicon Valley, and Beyond (B) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Disruption in Detroit: Ford, Silicon Valley, and Beyond (B) case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Disruption in Detroit: Ford, Silicon Valley, and Beyond (B) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Ernest Gundling. The Disruption in Detroit: Ford, Silicon Valley, and Beyond (B) (referred as “Ford Ford's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Change management, Disruptive innovation, Leadership, Technology.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Disruption in Detroit: Ford, Silicon Valley, and Beyond (B) Case Study


The (A) case focuses on the Ford Motor Company in Spring 2016 and how its then-CEO, Mark Fields, and his senior management team should best respond to several emerging disruptive technologies that will ultimately force the automaker to modify its current business model. These disruptive technologies includes electric vehicles, connectivity autonomous vehicles, car ownership and use, and emergence of subcompact cares. Having experienced a successful financial turnaround under the leadership of its prior CEO, Alan Mulally, during and after the 2008-09 recession, Ford must now decide whether its current investment in responding to these new emerging technologies is too much, too little or just right. As Ford considers the degree of its response, it also faces new competitors in the fast-changing automotive landscape -- besides its traditional automaker rivals like General Motors, Toyota and Hyundai -- that now includes the Google, Apple and Tesla from the Silicon Valley as well as BYD and LeEco from China. Ford's history of innovation in response to past opportunities and challenges is also discussed. The (B) case provides an update on Ford's strategy during the fall of 2017, following the dismissal of Fields and the appointment of former Steelcase CEO and Fort Smart Mobility (FSM) chair Jim Hackett as his successor in May 2017. Faced with a drop of 37 percent in Ford's stock price during Field's tenure, declining year-over-year vehicle sales in early 2017, and the view of some Ford Board members that the company needed to more successfully communicate its recent strategic moves in the mobility space, Hackett lays five themes to turnaround the company, while keeping his eye on the "now, near, and far" on the company's performance.


Case Authors : Ernest Gundling

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Change management, Disruptive innovation, Leadership, Technology




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Disruption in Detroit: Ford, Silicon Valley, and Beyond (B) Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10004540) -10004540 - -
Year 1 3457144 -6547396 3457144 0.9434 3261457
Year 2 3971627 -2575769 7428771 0.89 3534734
Year 3 3969706 1393937 11398477 0.8396 3333042
Year 4 3227312 4621249 14625789 0.7921 2556333
TOTAL 14625789 12685566




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2681026

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ford Ford's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ford Ford's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Disruption in Detroit: Ford, Silicon Valley, and Beyond (B)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ford Ford's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ford Ford's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10004540) -10004540 - -
Year 1 3457144 -6547396 3457144 0.8696 3006212
Year 2 3971627 -2575769 7428771 0.7561 3003121
Year 3 3969706 1393937 11398477 0.6575 2610146
Year 4 3227312 4621249 14625789 0.5718 1845226
TOTAL 10464705


The Net NPV after 4 years is 460165

(10464705 - 10004540 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10004540) -10004540 - -
Year 1 3457144 -6547396 3457144 0.8333 2880953
Year 2 3971627 -2575769 7428771 0.6944 2758074
Year 3 3969706 1393937 11398477 0.5787 2297284
Year 4 3227312 4621249 14625789 0.4823 1556381
TOTAL 9492692


The Net NPV after 4 years is -511848

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9492692 - 10004540 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ford Ford's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ford Ford's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ford Ford's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ford Ford's, then the stock price of the Ford Ford's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ford Ford's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Disruption in Detroit: Ford, Silicon Valley, and Beyond (B)

References & Further Readings

Ernest Gundling (2018), "Disruption in Detroit: Ford, Silicon Valley, and Beyond (B) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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