Semir's E-Commerce: Success and Exploration Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Semir's E-Commerce: Success and Exploration case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Semir's E-Commerce: Success and Exploration case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Juan Shan, William Wei, Xiaojia Sunny Wang. The Semir's E-Commerce: Success and Exploration (referred as “Semir Semir's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Semir's E-Commerce: Success and Exploration Case Study

Zhejiang Semir E-Commerce Co. Ltd., the online subsidiary of Chinese casual clothing company Zhejiang Semir Group Co. Ltd. (Semir), grew continuously from its launch in 2012 to become a main contributor to Semir's success, contributing approximately 30 per cent of Semir's annual revenue by 2016. Semir entered the online market relatively late after many competing Chinese clothing manufacturers had already established their presence online. Yet it became the industry leader in terms of e-commerce revenue. It differed from other major clothing firms mainly in its implementation of the management philosophy of Kazuo Inamori, particularly his Amoeba Management method and his belief in altruism and a win-win approach to business. Semir worked to create supply chain relationships that were true partnerships, and it promoted the various brands in its multi-brand strategy through celebrity endorsements and online marketing. Like its major competitors, Semir was exploring online-to-offline (O2O) models in the clothing industry. In 2016, the company faced a rapidly changing online environment and increasing competition in the industry. It needed a strategy to maintain its early success in e-commerce. It also needed to determine what kind of O2O model to adopt and how to deal with competition from fast-fashion retailers in the online marketplace. Juan Shan, William Wei, Xiaojia Sunny Wang are affiliated with MacEwan University.

Case Authors : Juan Shan, William Wei, Xiaojia Sunny Wang

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Semir's E-Commerce: Success and Exploration Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000295)	-10000295	-	-
Year 1	3454524	-6545771	3454524	0.9434	3258985
Year 2	3970286	-2575485	7424810	0.89	3533540
Year 3	3937135	1361650	11361945	0.8396	3305694
Year 4	3226351	4588001	14588296	0.7921	2555572
TOTAL			14588296		12653792

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2653497

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Semir Semir's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Semir Semir's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Semir's E-Commerce: Success and Exploration

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Semir Semir's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Semir Semir's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000295)	-10000295	-	-
Year 1	3454524	-6545771	3454524	0.8696	3003934
Year 2	3970286	-2575485	7424810	0.7561	3002107
Year 3	3937135	1361650	11361945	0.6575	2588730
Year 4	3226351	4588001	14588296	0.5718	1844677
TOTAL					10439447

The Net NPV after 4 years is 439152

(10439447 - 10000295 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000295)	-10000295	-	-
Year 1	3454524	-6545771	3454524	0.8333	2878770
Year 2	3970286	-2575485	7424810	0.6944	2757143
Year 3	3937135	1361650	11361945	0.5787	2278435
Year 4	3226351	4588001	14588296	0.4823	1555918
TOTAL					9470265

The Net NPV after 4 years is -530030

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9470265 - 10000295 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Semir Semir's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Semir Semir's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Semir Semir's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Semir Semir's, then the stock price of the Semir Semir's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Semir Semir's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Semir's E-Commerce: Success and Exploration

References & Further Readings

Juan Shan, William Wei, Xiaojia Sunny Wang (2018), "Semir's E-Commerce: Success and Exploration Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.