Ho Tak Kee Book Co. Ltd. - A Third Generation at a Crossroads (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Ho Tak Kee Book Co. Ltd. - A Third Generation at a Crossroads (A) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Ho Tak Kee Book Co. Ltd. - A Third Generation at a Crossroads (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Kevin Au, Barbara Li. The Ho Tak Kee Book Co. Ltd. - A Third Generation at a Crossroads (A) (referred as “Kee Tak” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Growth strategy, Succession planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Ho Tak Kee Book Co. Ltd. - A Third Generation at a Crossroads (A) Case Study

Ho Tak Kee was originally a professional publisher and printer that started in the 1950s in Hong Kong. Having faced static performance for decades, the founder and grandfather of the family decided to close the printing department. This pushed his youngest son, On-ping, to a critical decision: whether and how to continue the family business. Under pressure, On-ping turned to his son John for support but the request put John in a difficult position of choosing between a professional career and the family business. As a young man without much life and work experience, John had to go through a personal development process to shape up as a leader in order to make the family business thrive again and keep the family together. Case (A) is from John's point of view as he is making his decision and is intended to stimulate students to look at a family business from a third generation's perspective. Case (B) starts with John's decision to join Ho Tak Kee.

Case Authors : Kevin Au, Barbara Li

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Growth strategy, Succession planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Ho Tak Kee Book Co. Ltd. - A Third Generation at a Crossroads (A) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027934)	-10027934	-	-
Year 1	3450695	-6577239	3450695	0.9434	3255373
Year 2	3980566	-2596673	7431261	0.89	3542690
Year 3	3957649	1360976	11388910	0.8396	3322918
Year 4	3228339	4589315	14617249	0.7921	2557147
TOTAL			14617249		12678127

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2650193

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Kee Tak shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Kee Tak have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Ho Tak Kee Book Co. Ltd. - A Third Generation at a Crossroads (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Kee Tak often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Kee Tak needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027934)	-10027934	-	-
Year 1	3450695	-6577239	3450695	0.8696	3000604
Year 2	3980566	-2596673	7431261	0.7561	3009880
Year 3	3957649	1360976	11388910	0.6575	2602218
Year 4	3228339	4589315	14617249	0.5718	1845813
TOTAL					10458516

The Net NPV after 4 years is 430582

(10458516 - 10027934 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027934)	-10027934	-	-
Year 1	3450695	-6577239	3450695	0.8333	2875579
Year 2	3980566	-2596673	7431261	0.6944	2764282
Year 3	3957649	1360976	11388910	0.5787	2290306
Year 4	3228339	4589315	14617249	0.4823	1556876
TOTAL					9487044

The Net NPV after 4 years is -540890

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487044 - 10027934 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Kee Tak to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Kee Tak has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Kee Tak can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Kee Tak, then the stock price of the Kee Tak should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Kee Tak should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Ho Tak Kee Book Co. Ltd. - A Third Generation at a Crossroads (A)

References & Further Readings

Kevin Au, Barbara Li (2018), "Ho Tak Kee Book Co. Ltd. - A Third Generation at a Crossroads (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.