Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?
At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. INDITEX: Outsourcing in Tanger case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Alfred Vernis. The INDITEX: Outsourcing in Tanger (referred as “Inditex Social” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Social responsibility, Strategy.
The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.
Centers on the Inditex Group (Industria del Diseno Textil), a Spanish corporation that ranks among the world fashion industry leaders along with companies such as GAP, Nike, Benetton, and H&M. Inditex owns several brands, including Zara, Pull and Bear, Massimo Dutti, Bershka, Stradivarius, Oysho, Zara Home, and Kiddy's Class. To respond to repeated attacks by NGOs, the company had initially pursued a reactive corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy. However, it was now actively working on the implementation of a CSR plan that spanned its whole production and sales processes, focusing on working conditions at the company's manufacture outsourcing shops. Its strategy addressed profound structural changes undergone by the industry and the company itself. While in 1980 all production operations were based in Spain, by 2003 Inditex had expanded to include production centers as well as certified suppliers in the Americas, Africa, Europe, and Asia. On the other hand, the initially family-owned company had gone public at a world level. At the time, several NGOs had begun to look into and report on the overall textile sector in the midst of a campaign against labor exploitation, child labor, and corporate social irresponsibility at large. This situation posed new challenges for the company, especially regarding labor, and workers' social and economic conditions. In order to face these challenges, a Corporate Social Responsibility Department and a Social Council were created to ensure that corporate actions reflected the company's social responsibility and commitment and to communicate sustainability values and respect for human rights across the board.
| Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 6 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | (10003063) | -10003063 | - | - | |
| Year 1 | 3472765 | -6530298 | 3472765 | 0.9434 | 3276193 |
| Year 2 | 3972539 | -2557759 | 7445304 | 0.89 | 3535546 |
| Year 3 | 3963986 | 1406227 | 11409290 | 0.8396 | 3328239 |
| Year 4 | 3250165 | 4656392 | 14659455 | 0.7921 | 2574435 |
| TOTAL | 14659455 | 12714413 |
In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -
Capital Budgeting Approaches
There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –
1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index
Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on
Discounted Cash Flow
technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.
Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –
1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Inditex Social shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Inditex Social have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0
Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate.
Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.
Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project
In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Inditex Social often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.
To overcome such scenarios managers at Inditex Social needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.
After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.
| Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 15 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | (10003063) | -10003063 | - | - | |
| Year 1 | 3472765 | -6530298 | 3472765 | 0.8696 | 3019796 |
| Year 2 | 3972539 | -2557759 | 7445304 | 0.7561 | 3003810 |
| Year 3 | 3963986 | 1406227 | 11409290 | 0.6575 | 2606385 |
| Year 4 | 3250165 | 4656392 | 14659455 | 0.5718 | 1858292 |
| TOTAL | 10488283 |
(10488283 - 10003063 )
If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.
| Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 20 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | (10003063) | -10003063 | - | - | |
| Year 1 | 3472765 | -6530298 | 3472765 | 0.8333 | 2893971 |
| Year 2 | 3972539 | -2557759 | 7445304 | 0.6944 | 2758708 |
| Year 3 | 3963986 | 1406227 | 11409290 | 0.5787 | 2293973 |
| Year 4 | 3250165 | 4656392 | 14659455 | 0.4823 | 1567402 |
| TOTAL | 9514054 |
At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9514054 - 10003063 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Inditex Social to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.
Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Inditex Social has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Inditex Social can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.
In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Inditex Social, then the stock price of the Inditex Social should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.
In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.
Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Inditex Social should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –
What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.
What can impact the cash flow of the project.
What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.
Understanding of risks involved in the project.
What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.
Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.
Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.
Alfred Vernis (2018), "INDITEX: Outsourcing in Tanger Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.
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