2001 Crisis in Argentina: An IMF-Sponsored Default? (A), Spanish Version Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for 2001 Crisis in Argentina: An IMF-Sponsored Default? (A), Spanish Version case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. 2001 Crisis in Argentina: An IMF-Sponsored Default? (A), Spanish Version case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel. The 2001 Crisis in Argentina: An IMF-Sponsored Default? (A), Spanish Version (referred as “Argentina's Convertibility” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Currency, Decision making, Economics, Ethics, Government, International business, Recession.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of 2001 Crisis in Argentina: An IMF-Sponsored Default? (A), Spanish Version Case Study

At the end of 2001, Argentina's economy and society both appeared on the verge of collapse. Furious about controls imposed on the convertibility of their bank deposits into cash (the "corralito") and huge proposed government spending cuts amidst high unemployment and deteriorating social services, Argentines from all economic backgrounds took to the streets in protest. In violent rioting, stores were looted, buildings burned, and more than 22 people killed. The entire government was forced to resign. A succession of increasingly ineffectual presidents shuffled through the presidential palace, each seemingly more powerless to confront the crisis than the last. Meanwhile, the country's economic situation continued to deteriorate, and Argentina soon defaulted on its $141 billion in foreign debt outstanding in the largest sovereign default in history. On January 2, 2002, Eduardo Duhalde was selected interim president by Argentina's Congress--and would serve as Argentina's fifth president in two weeks. At the helm of Argentina's flailing economy, he had a number of important decisions to make. Among these were what to do with Argentina's decade-long peg to the dollar under the Convertibility Plan.

Case Authors : Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Currency, Decision making, Economics, Ethics, Government, International business, Recession

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for 2001 Crisis in Argentina: An IMF-Sponsored Default? (A), Spanish Version Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011958)	-10011958	-	-
Year 1	3458307	-6553651	3458307	0.9434	3262554
Year 2	3982283	-2571368	7440590	0.89	3544218
Year 3	3946763	1375395	11387353	0.8396	3313778
Year 4	3242749	4618144	14630102	0.7921	2568561
TOTAL			14630102		12689111

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2677153

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Argentina's Convertibility have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Argentina's Convertibility shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of 2001 Crisis in Argentina: An IMF-Sponsored Default? (A), Spanish Version

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Argentina's Convertibility often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Argentina's Convertibility needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011958)	-10011958	-	-
Year 1	3458307	-6553651	3458307	0.8696	3007223
Year 2	3982283	-2571368	7440590	0.7561	3011178
Year 3	3946763	1375395	11387353	0.6575	2595061
Year 4	3242749	4618144	14630102	0.5718	1854052
TOTAL					10467515

The Net NPV after 4 years is 455557

(10467515 - 10011958 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011958)	-10011958	-	-
Year 1	3458307	-6553651	3458307	0.8333	2881923
Year 2	3982283	-2571368	7440590	0.6944	2765474
Year 3	3946763	1375395	11387353	0.5787	2284006
Year 4	3242749	4618144	14630102	0.4823	1563826
TOTAL					9495229

The Net NPV after 4 years is -516729

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9495229 - 10011958 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Argentina's Convertibility to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Argentina's Convertibility has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Argentina's Convertibility can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Argentina's Convertibility, then the stock price of the Argentina's Convertibility should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Argentina's Convertibility should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of 2001 Crisis in Argentina: An IMF-Sponsored Default? (A), Spanish Version

References & Further Readings

Rafael Di Tella, Ingrid Vogel (2018), "2001 Crisis in Argentina: An IMF-Sponsored Default? (A), Spanish Version Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.