Banking on Germany? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Banking on Germany? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Banking on Germany? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jeffrey Fear. The Banking on Germany? (referred as “German Basel” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial markets, International business, Recession.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Banking on Germany? Case Study

This case is available in only hard copy format (HBP does not have digital distribution rights to the content). As a result, a digital Educator Copy of the case is not available through this web site.Explores the causes and consequences of transforming Germany's bank-oriented financial system into one more oriented to capital markets. The economics of globalization, international accords such as Basel II, EU financial policies, and Germany's own regulatory reforms struck to the heart of its traditional, relationship-banking model. The outcry against these reforms grew so great that the German chancellor, Gerhard Schroder, announced that Basel II was not acceptable for Germany, especially because it affected the financing of Mittelstand (small and medium-size firms), the backbone of the German economy. With the economy stagnating, unemployment rising, job creation stalling, bankruptcies reaching record rates, the budget deficit rising, and German banks increasingly suffering from a simultaneous structural and earnings crisis, German banks and businesses wondered what the future had in store for them.

Case Authors : Jeffrey Fear

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Financial markets, International business, Recession

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Banking on Germany? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028351)	-10028351	-	-
Year 1	3471084	-6557267	3471084	0.9434	3274608
Year 2	3975240	-2582027	7446324	0.89	3537949
Year 3	3943590	1361563	11389914	0.8396	3311114
Year 4	3227565	4589128	14617479	0.7921	2556534
TOTAL			14617479		12680205

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2651854

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of German Basel have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. German Basel shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Banking on Germany?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at German Basel often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at German Basel needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028351)	-10028351	-	-
Year 1	3471084	-6557267	3471084	0.8696	3018334
Year 2	3975240	-2582027	7446324	0.7561	3005853
Year 3	3943590	1361563	11389914	0.6575	2592974
Year 4	3227565	4589128	14617479	0.5718	1845371
TOTAL					10462532

The Net NPV after 4 years is 434181

(10462532 - 10028351 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028351)	-10028351	-	-
Year 1	3471084	-6557267	3471084	0.8333	2892570
Year 2	3975240	-2582027	7446324	0.6944	2760583
Year 3	3943590	1361563	11389914	0.5787	2282170
Year 4	3227565	4589128	14617479	0.4823	1556503
TOTAL					9491827

The Net NPV after 4 years is -536524

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9491827 - 10028351 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of German Basel to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of German Basel has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at German Basel can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at German Basel, then the stock price of the German Basel should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at German Basel should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Banking on Germany?

References & Further Readings

Jeffrey Fear (2018), "Banking on Germany? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.