Meta-Technologies and Innovation Leadership: Why There May Be Nothing New Under the Sun Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Meta-Technologies and Innovation Leadership: Why There May Be Nothing New Under the Sun case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Meta-Technologies and Innovation Leadership: Why There May Be Nothing New Under the Sun case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Rashi Glazer. The Meta-Technologies and Innovation Leadership: Why There May Be Nothing New Under the Sun (referred as “Meta Technologies” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Marketing, Product development, Technology.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Meta-Technologies and Innovation Leadership: Why There May Be Nothing New Under the Sun Case Study

As firms strive to lead through innovation, they face the twin challenges of how to unify seemingly contradictory perspectives. The first is the desire to bring genuinely new products to market and follow a "market-driven" approach to product development, which often tends to be conservative in nature. The second is avoiding the "innovator's dilemma," or becoming the prisoner of a once-but-no-longer successful technology due to the emergence of an apparently "disruptive" newer technology. Presents a framework for helping organizations simultaneously deal with these two issues, which are rooted in the understanding that while firms may produce a set of (technical) features, consumers purchase benefits. However, since most benefits are generic in nature, the core "technologies" on which innovations are based--what we describe as meta-technologies--are also generic in nature. By focusing their efforts on meta-technologies, firms can be innovative while remaining sensitive to customer needs and simultaneously be market-driven and "market-driving." This perspective offers a potential solution to the "innovator's dilemma," since at the benefit level technologies are rarely disruptive, but rather "continuous" and evolutionary. Firms that seeks to develop successful and sustainable strategies for innovation must identify these generic, or "meta-technologies," and then design and deliver new products that are based on them.

Case Authors : Rashi Glazer

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Marketing, Product development, Technology

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Meta-Technologies and Innovation Leadership: Why There May Be Nothing New Under the Sun Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011354)	-10011354	-	-
Year 1	3450648	-6560706	3450648	0.9434	3255328
Year 2	3981336	-2579370	7431984	0.89	3543375
Year 3	3939610	1360240	11371594	0.8396	3307773
Year 4	3226874	4587114	14598468	0.7921	2555986
TOTAL			14598468		12662462

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2651108

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Meta Technologies have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Meta Technologies shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Meta-Technologies and Innovation Leadership: Why There May Be Nothing New Under the Sun

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Meta Technologies often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Meta Technologies needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011354)	-10011354	-	-
Year 1	3450648	-6560706	3450648	0.8696	3000563
Year 2	3981336	-2579370	7431984	0.7561	3010462
Year 3	3939610	1360240	11371594	0.6575	2590358
Year 4	3226874	4587114	14598468	0.5718	1844976
TOTAL					10446359

The Net NPV after 4 years is 435005

(10446359 - 10011354 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10011354)	-10011354	-	-
Year 1	3450648	-6560706	3450648	0.8333	2875540
Year 2	3981336	-2579370	7431984	0.6944	2764817
Year 3	3939610	1360240	11371594	0.5787	2279867
Year 4	3226874	4587114	14598468	0.4823	1556170
TOTAL					9476394

The Net NPV after 4 years is -534960

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9476394 - 10011354 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Meta Technologies to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Meta Technologies has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Meta Technologies can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Meta Technologies, then the stock price of the Meta Technologies should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Meta Technologies should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Meta-Technologies and Innovation Leadership: Why There May Be Nothing New Under the Sun

References & Further Readings

Rashi Glazer (2018), "Meta-Technologies and Innovation Leadership: Why There May Be Nothing New Under the Sun Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.