Up, Up, and Away! Event Planning and Production in Las Vegas Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Up, Up, and Away! Event Planning and Production in Las Vegas case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Up, Up, and Away! Event Planning and Production in Las Vegas case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Cheri A. Young, Daniel E. Nelson, Kathleen S. Nelson. The Up, Up, and Away! Event Planning and Production in Las Vegas (referred as “Event Vegas” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Project management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Up, Up, and Away! Event Planning and Production in Las Vegas Case Study

Event producer Dan Nelson is faced with a crisis involving a punctured sprinkler water line and a 1.5-ton forklift stuck in the resulting mud during set up for an event for 350 attendees taking place that evening. The event is to be held outdoors on the driving range of a Las Vegas resort's golf course on the famous Las Vegas Strip. Dealing with the resort's catering staff and various contractors, Nelson must now create alternatives on-the-fly for dealing with the crisis during the implementation phase of this event, make a quick decision, and implement an alternative under time pressure. The case provides opportunities for: (1) assessing potential risk and crisis management issues pertaining to a particular event and compiling suggestions for closing gaps; (2) using various decision tools (GANTT chart, project management software, EMBOK model) to aid in crisis management, and ultimately, decision making; (3) identifying event stakeholders and managing the relationship between the stakeholders and the event producer; and (4) reflecting on the crisis that happened and learning from it so as to avoid or prepare for it in the future.

Case Authors : Cheri A. Young, Daniel E. Nelson, Kathleen S. Nelson

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Project management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Up, Up, and Away! Event Planning and Production in Las Vegas Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012158)	-10012158	-	-
Year 1	3449100	-6563058	3449100	0.9434	3253868
Year 2	3966417	-2596641	7415517	0.89	3530097
Year 3	3974654	1378013	11390171	0.8396	3337196
Year 4	3243517	4621530	14633688	0.7921	2569169
TOTAL			14633688		12690330

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2678172

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Event Vegas have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Event Vegas shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Up, Up, and Away! Event Planning and Production in Las Vegas

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Event Vegas often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Event Vegas needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012158)	-10012158	-	-
Year 1	3449100	-6563058	3449100	0.8696	2999217
Year 2	3966417	-2596641	7415517	0.7561	2999181
Year 3	3974654	1378013	11390171	0.6575	2613400
Year 4	3243517	4621530	14633688	0.5718	1854491
TOTAL					10466289

The Net NPV after 4 years is 454131

(10466289 - 10012158 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012158)	-10012158	-	-
Year 1	3449100	-6563058	3449100	0.8333	2874250
Year 2	3966417	-2596641	7415517	0.6944	2754456
Year 3	3974654	1378013	11390171	0.5787	2300147
Year 4	3243517	4621530	14633688	0.4823	1564196
TOTAL					9493049

The Net NPV after 4 years is -519109

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9493049 - 10012158 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Event Vegas to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Event Vegas has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Event Vegas can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Event Vegas, then the stock price of the Event Vegas should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Event Vegas should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Up, Up, and Away! Event Planning and Production in Las Vegas

References & Further Readings

Cheri A. Young, Daniel E. Nelson, Kathleen S. Nelson (2018), "Up, Up, and Away! Event Planning and Production in Las Vegas Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.