Merging American Airlines and US Airways Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Merging American Airlines and US Airways case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Merging American Airlines and US Airways case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by David G. Fubini, David A. Garvin, Carin-Isabel Knoop. The Merging American Airlines and US Airways (referred as “Airways Parker” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Decision making, Leading teams, Mergers & acquisitions, Operations management, Organizational culture.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Merging American Airlines and US Airways Case Study

In February 2013, US Airways announced that it would merge with American Airlines to create the world's largest airline. Doug Parker, the CEO of US Airways, would become CEO of the new American Airlines Group (AAL).The case describes a number of critical decisions Parker made and actions that he took in the course of the acquisition integration process. All focused on how best to combine the two airlines' core systems and operating processes as well as the appropriate scope and speed of strategic changes. Now, Parker must decide on the composition of AAL's senior executive team. Should Parker select a team dominated by US Airways executives with whom he has successfully worked for decades? Or should he establish a new team with roughly equal representation from both airlines? Parker's choice will send important signals to employees about the extent to which the transaction will be viewed as a merger of equals or as a takeover by US Airways.

Case Authors : David G. Fubini, David A. Garvin, Carin-Isabel Knoop

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Decision making, Leading teams, Mergers & acquisitions, Operations management, Organizational culture

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Merging American Airlines and US Airways Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027997)	-10027997	-	-
Year 1	3450753	-6577244	3450753	0.9434	3255427
Year 2	3963595	-2613649	7414348	0.89	3527585
Year 3	3962413	1348764	11376761	0.8396	3326918
Year 4	3251835	4600599	14628596	0.7921	2575758
TOTAL			14628596		12685689

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2657692

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Airways Parker shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Airways Parker have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Merging American Airlines and US Airways

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Airways Parker often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Airways Parker needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027997)	-10027997	-	-
Year 1	3450753	-6577244	3450753	0.8696	3000655
Year 2	3963595	-2613649	7414348	0.7561	2997047
Year 3	3962413	1348764	11376761	0.6575	2605351
Year 4	3251835	4600599	14628596	0.5718	1859247
TOTAL					10462300

The Net NPV after 4 years is 434303

(10462300 - 10027997 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027997)	-10027997	-	-
Year 1	3450753	-6577244	3450753	0.8333	2875628
Year 2	3963595	-2613649	7414348	0.6944	2752497
Year 3	3962413	1348764	11376761	0.5787	2293063
Year 4	3251835	4600599	14628596	0.4823	1568207
TOTAL					9489395

The Net NPV after 4 years is -538602

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9489395 - 10027997 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Airways Parker to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Airways Parker has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Airways Parker can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Airways Parker, then the stock price of the Airways Parker should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Airways Parker should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Merging American Airlines and US Airways

References & Further Readings

David G. Fubini, David A. Garvin, Carin-Isabel Knoop (2018), "Merging American Airlines and US Airways Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.