Niagara Falls Construction Project: Scheduling, Resources, Costs and Bureaucracy Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Niagara Falls Construction Project: Scheduling, Resources, Costs and Bureaucracy case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Niagara Falls Construction Project: Scheduling, Resources, Costs and Bureaucracy case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Kenneth J. Klassen, Barry Riddell. The Niagara Falls Construction Project: Scheduling, Resources, Costs and Bureaucracy (referred as “Homeowner Residence” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

---

Case Description of Niagara Falls Construction Project: Scheduling, Resources, Costs and Bureaucracy Case Study

A homeowner and his family finally have an offer on their residence. The terms negotiated with the buyers require the homeowner to build a detached garage on the property before the closing date on August 30, 2013, which is in 16 weeks. The homeowner's family has also made a conditional offer on another home, and the condition must be removed in two days if they would like to finalize that purchase. Although proficient at construction, the homeowner has encountered a major addition to his timeline on May 1. The city is requiring that he obtain a variance approval before the building department issues the building permit, thereby delaying the start of construction by between nine and ten weeks. The homeowner must decide whether to go ahead or cancel the sale of the residence and the purchase of a new home. Kenneth J. Klassen is affiliated with Brock University.

Case Authors : Kenneth J. Klassen, Barry Riddell

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas :

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Niagara Falls Construction Project: Scheduling, Resources, Costs and Bureaucracy Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024962)	-10024962	-	-
Year 1	3457970	-6566992	3457970	0.9434	3262236
Year 2	3960465	-2606527	7418435	0.89	3524800
Year 3	3953772	1347245	11372207	0.8396	3319663
Year 4	3242249	4589494	14614456	0.7921	2568165
TOTAL			14614456		12674864

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2649902

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

---

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Homeowner Residence shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Homeowner Residence have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

---

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Niagara Falls Construction Project: Scheduling, Resources, Costs and Bureaucracy

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Homeowner Residence often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Homeowner Residence needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024962)	-10024962	-	-
Year 1	3457970	-6566992	3457970	0.8696	3006930
Year 2	3960465	-2606527	7418435	0.7561	2994681
Year 3	3953772	1347245	11372207	0.6575	2599669
Year 4	3242249	4589494	14614456	0.5718	1853766
TOTAL					10455047

The Net NPV after 4 years is 430085

(10455047 - 10024962 )

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024962)	-10024962	-	-
Year 1	3457970	-6566992	3457970	0.8333	2881642
Year 2	3960465	-2606527	7418435	0.6944	2750323
Year 3	3953772	1347245	11372207	0.5787	2288063
Year 4	3242249	4589494	14614456	0.4823	1563585
TOTAL					9483612

The Net NPV after 4 years is -541350

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483612 - 10024962 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Homeowner Residence to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Homeowner Residence has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Homeowner Residence can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Homeowner Residence, then the stock price of the Homeowner Residence should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Homeowner Residence should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

---

Negotiation Strategy of Niagara Falls Construction Project: Scheduling, Resources, Costs and Bureaucracy

References & Further Readings

Kenneth J. Klassen, Barry Riddell (2018), "Niagara Falls Construction Project: Scheduling, Resources, Costs and Bureaucracy Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.