Manufacturing Outsourcing, Onshoring, and Global Equilibrium Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Manufacturing Outsourcing, Onshoring, and Global Equilibrium case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Manufacturing Outsourcing, Onshoring, and Global Equilibrium case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by David Owen Kazmer. The Manufacturing Outsourcing, Onshoring, and Global Equilibrium (referred as “Manufacturing Onshoring” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Operations management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Manufacturing Outsourcing, Onshoring, and Global Equilibrium Case Study

Manufacturing is now a national strategy for many countries to combat slow economic growth, and positively viewed with the current trend of onshoring foreign manufacturing operations. We develop a cross-country regression model that predicts manufacturing employment as a function of population growth, foreign direct investment, and purchasing power parity. Results through the year 2100 suggest that manufacturing is trending toward a global equilibrium with higher levels of manufacturing outputs but much lower levels of manufacturing employment. The reason is that countries tend to evolve from having little manufacturing to commodity manufacturing at large scale and low wages. As infrastructure and human capital develop, there is the tendency to pursue advanced manufacturing in support of higher valued goods. The manufacture of commodity products is then outsourced to those countries with lower costs justified by their less-developed infrastructure and human capital, and so the virtuous cycle continues. While this model suggests that current efforts in revitalization of domestic manufacturing would lead to an increase in wealth in the United States, the bad news is that these gains are unlikely to be sustainable in the long term. However, the good news is that manufacturing acts as a rising tide that raises all nations and our global quality of life.

Case Authors : David Owen Kazmer

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Operations management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Manufacturing Outsourcing, Onshoring, and Global Equilibrium Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000825)	-10000825	-	-
Year 1	3461392	-6539433	3461392	0.9434	3265464
Year 2	3970469	-2568964	7431861	0.89	3533703
Year 3	3935968	1367004	11367829	0.8396	3304715
Year 4	3250326	4617330	14618155	0.7921	2574563
TOTAL			14618155		12678445

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2677620

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Manufacturing Onshoring have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Manufacturing Onshoring shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Manufacturing Outsourcing, Onshoring, and Global Equilibrium

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Manufacturing Onshoring often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Manufacturing Onshoring needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000825)	-10000825	-	-
Year 1	3461392	-6539433	3461392	0.8696	3009906
Year 2	3970469	-2568964	7431861	0.7561	3002245
Year 3	3935968	1367004	11367829	0.6575	2587963
Year 4	3250326	4617330	14618155	0.5718	1858384
TOTAL					10458498

The Net NPV after 4 years is 457673

(10458498 - 10000825 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000825)	-10000825	-	-
Year 1	3461392	-6539433	3461392	0.8333	2884493
Year 2	3970469	-2568964	7431861	0.6944	2757270
Year 3	3935968	1367004	11367829	0.5787	2277759
Year 4	3250326	4617330	14618155	0.4823	1567480
TOTAL					9487002

The Net NPV after 4 years is -513823

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487002 - 10000825 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Manufacturing Onshoring to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Manufacturing Onshoring has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Manufacturing Onshoring can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Manufacturing Onshoring, then the stock price of the Manufacturing Onshoring should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Manufacturing Onshoring should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Manufacturing Outsourcing, Onshoring, and Global Equilibrium

References & Further Readings

David Owen Kazmer (2018), "Manufacturing Outsourcing, Onshoring, and Global Equilibrium Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.