When a Pandemic Hits: Treading H2O and the Possible Pox (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for When a Pandemic Hits: Treading H2O and the Possible Pox (A) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. When a Pandemic Hits: Treading H2O and the Possible Pox (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Erika H. James, Jason Clifton. The When a Pandemic Hits: Treading H2O and the Possible Pox (A) (referred as “H2o Treading” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Leadership, Organizational culture.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of When a Pandemic Hits: Treading H2O and the Possible Pox (A) Case Study

This five-case series, sold as a package, presents an opportunity for students to understand that having the leadership mindset is not about going from crisis to crisis, but anticipating and shaping your organization. Through four case scenarios, students learn the need to recognize when there is a crisis situation, explore problems that often occur when issues are ignored, and take appropriate actions to remedy the situation. In the (A) case, students become a member of the senior executive team at Treading H2O Inc., a water-treatment equipment company located in the Midwestern United States, at a meeting to discuss a recently released World Health Organization (WHO) report. The statement announced that there was indication of human-to-human transmission of the Avian Flu in rural China near Shanghai. The company's regional sales manager sent information stating that the Chinese government had closed off access to the region?a key area for sales. On top of that, there are several Treading H2O employees in the same area. Students must determine what, if anything, needs to be done.

Case Authors : Erika H. James, Jason Clifton

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Leadership, Organizational culture

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for When a Pandemic Hits: Treading H2O and the Possible Pox (A) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012943)	-10012943	-	-
Year 1	3451182	-6561761	3451182	0.9434	3255832
Year 2	3977878	-2583883	7429060	0.89	3540297
Year 3	3952371	1368488	11381431	0.8396	3318487
Year 4	3240155	4608643	14621586	0.7921	2566506
TOTAL			14621586		12681122

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2668179

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. H2o Treading shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of H2o Treading have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of When a Pandemic Hits: Treading H2O and the Possible Pox (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at H2o Treading often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at H2o Treading needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012943)	-10012943	-	-
Year 1	3451182	-6561761	3451182	0.8696	3001028
Year 2	3977878	-2583883	7429060	0.7561	3007847
Year 3	3952371	1368488	11381431	0.6575	2598748
Year 4	3240155	4608643	14621586	0.5718	1852569
TOTAL					10460192

The Net NPV after 4 years is 447249

(10460192 - 10012943 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012943)	-10012943	-	-
Year 1	3451182	-6561761	3451182	0.8333	2875985
Year 2	3977878	-2583883	7429060	0.6944	2762415
Year 3	3952371	1368488	11381431	0.5787	2287252
Year 4	3240155	4608643	14621586	0.4823	1562575
TOTAL					9488227

The Net NPV after 4 years is -524716

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9488227 - 10012943 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of H2o Treading to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of H2o Treading has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at H2o Treading can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at H2o Treading, then the stock price of the H2o Treading should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at H2o Treading should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of When a Pandemic Hits: Treading H2O and the Possible Pox (A)

References & Further Readings

Erika H. James, Jason Clifton (2018), "When a Pandemic Hits: Treading H2O and the Possible Pox (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.