Lyxor ChinaH Versus Lyxor MSIndia: Portfolio Risk and Return Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Lyxor ChinaH Versus Lyxor MSIndia: Portfolio Risk and Return case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Lyxor ChinaH Versus Lyxor MSIndia: Portfolio Risk and Return case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Ruth S.K. Tan, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Weina Zhang. The Lyxor ChinaH Versus Lyxor MSIndia: Portfolio Risk and Return (referred as “Lyxor Susie” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Lyxor ChinaH Versus Lyxor MSIndia: Portfolio Risk and Return Case Study

In September 2015, Susie reflected on the performance of her personal investment portfolio over the past seven years. Susie had invested in two exchange traded funds (ETFs): Lyxor ChinaH and Lyxor MSIndia. She was now considering Lyxor USDJIA as a third ETF to diversify her risk. This analysis would involve the concept of portfolio diversification and the application of the capital asset pricing model. In addition, Susie would need to calculate mean returns, standard deviations, covariances, correlations, betas, and required returns in order to fully assess the merits of her decision. Although Susie had been satisfied with her portfolio performance over the past seven years, the high growth in these two emerging markets had fizzled out lately. Should Susie diversify her portfolio or remain invested in China and India only? Ruth S. K. Tan is affiliated with NUS Business School. Zsuzsa R. Huszar is affiliated with NUS Business School. Weina Zhang is affiliated with NUS Business School.

Case Authors : Ruth S.K. Tan, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Weina Zhang

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Lyxor ChinaH Versus Lyxor MSIndia: Portfolio Risk and Return Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023661)	-10023661	-	-
Year 1	3460144	-6563517	3460144	0.9434	3264287
Year 2	3956661	-2606856	7416805	0.89	3521414
Year 3	3941269	1334413	11358074	0.8396	3309165
Year 4	3225692	4560105	14583766	0.7921	2555050
TOTAL			14583766		12649917

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2626256

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Lyxor Susie have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Lyxor Susie shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Lyxor ChinaH Versus Lyxor MSIndia: Portfolio Risk and Return

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Lyxor Susie often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Lyxor Susie needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023661)	-10023661	-	-
Year 1	3460144	-6563517	3460144	0.8696	3008821
Year 2	3956661	-2606856	7416805	0.7561	2991804
Year 3	3941269	1334413	11358074	0.6575	2591448
Year 4	3225692	4560105	14583766	0.5718	1844300
TOTAL					10436373

The Net NPV after 4 years is 412712

(10436373 - 10023661 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023661)	-10023661	-	-
Year 1	3460144	-6563517	3460144	0.8333	2883453
Year 2	3956661	-2606856	7416805	0.6944	2747681
Year 3	3941269	1334413	11358074	0.5787	2280827
Year 4	3225692	4560105	14583766	0.4823	1555600
TOTAL					9467561

The Net NPV after 4 years is -556100

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9467561 - 10023661 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Lyxor Susie to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Lyxor Susie has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Lyxor Susie can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Lyxor Susie, then the stock price of the Lyxor Susie should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Lyxor Susie should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Lyxor ChinaH Versus Lyxor MSIndia: Portfolio Risk and Return

References & Further Readings

Ruth S.K. Tan, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Weina Zhang (2018), "Lyxor ChinaH Versus Lyxor MSIndia: Portfolio Risk and Return Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.