Greece's Debt: Sustainable? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Greece's Debt: Sustainable? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Greece's Debt: Sustainable? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by George Serafeim. The Greece's Debt: Sustainable? (referred as “Debt Greece” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Economy, Financial analysis, Reorganization.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Greece's Debt: Sustainable? Case Study

The case "Greece's Debt: Sustainable?" describes the Greek economic crisis, bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the debt restructuring that followed. Because of a lack of trust in Greece's ability to repay its debt, two programs were organized that provided financial assistance to Greece. This was followed by a debt restructuring that provided debt relief to Greece through a combination of lowering interest rates, lengthening debt maturity, and rebates on interest and principal. The case outlines how International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), U.S. GAAP, and International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) define accounting for debt and describes the controversy that existed around the proper valuation of Greece's debt. Because Greece had not adopted accrual accounting, its debt was reported in face value terms, according to the Maastricht treaty. This was in contradiction to accounting practices that prescribed fair valuation of debt in line with market prices or present value techniques. The case ends with a series of questions that steer the discussion towards the importance of accrual accounting and valuation of debt. Did Greece have too much debt and as a result a solvency problem? Should Greece push lenders to take a haircut on the debt? Were the austerity measures really necessary? Or did Greece have too little debt, therefore allowing the country to avoid austerity measures, increase spending, and spark growth?

Case Authors : George Serafeim

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Economy, Financial analysis, Reorganization

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Greece's Debt: Sustainable? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017254)	-10017254	-	-
Year 1	3468002	-6549252	3468002	0.9434	3271700
Year 2	3956014	-2593238	7424016	0.89	3520838
Year 3	3940134	1346896	11364150	0.8396	3308212
Year 4	3237757	4584653	14601907	0.7921	2564607
TOTAL			14601907		12665358

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2648104

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Debt Greece shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Debt Greece have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Greece's Debt: Sustainable?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Debt Greece often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Debt Greece needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017254)	-10017254	-	-
Year 1	3468002	-6549252	3468002	0.8696	3015654
Year 2	3956014	-2593238	7424016	0.7561	2991315
Year 3	3940134	1346896	11364150	0.6575	2590702
Year 4	3237757	4584653	14601907	0.5718	1851198
TOTAL					10448869

The Net NPV after 4 years is 431615

(10448869 - 10017254 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017254)	-10017254	-	-
Year 1	3468002	-6549252	3468002	0.8333	2890002
Year 2	3956014	-2593238	7424016	0.6944	2747232
Year 3	3940134	1346896	11364150	0.5787	2280170
Year 4	3237757	4584653	14601907	0.4823	1561418
TOTAL					9478822

The Net NPV after 4 years is -538432

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9478822 - 10017254 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Debt Greece to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Debt Greece has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Debt Greece can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Debt Greece, then the stock price of the Debt Greece should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Debt Greece should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Greece's Debt: Sustainable?

References & Further Readings

George Serafeim (2018), "Greece's Debt: Sustainable? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.